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About Dontmindme

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  1. Apparently bringing real numbers to the discussion is now somehow "rude" because it makes a self-proclaimed "experienced backer" somehow wrong... I have backed of all 4 of these Bones Kickstarters. Early Bird Bones 2 and Wave 1 Bones 3. Stuck with Wave 2 this time. There are at most, assuming 23,000 original orders and ZERO Wave 14 backers, 6,800 duplicate orders. For the remaining 5,500-6,000 orders all to average 10 orders a piece, that would mean that virtually every single duplicate order went unfulfilled and is on hold with none of them delivered. It would also mean that there are only people who ordered once and those who ordered 10 times. Frankly, that does not make any sense. We know that there are at least 16,200 backers and that at least 9,400 of them placed but a single order (and that is assuming that all ~6,800 orders only placed two). If there are 550 people with 10+ orders (and all of them are still waiting and not Wave 1 U.S. or overseas or Canadian orders), then 14,350 of these orders are but a single order. It's very clear that the majority of people have but a single order. And it should be pretty obvious that most of the duplicate orders are likely to be x2 or x3 with very few multiple orders more than that. And all of this based on the optimistic figure of 23,000 orders which I believe has been shown to be less as well as assuming that virtually no one ordered in Wave 14. Those are the facts as we know it...
  2. We know there were 16,200 Kickstarter backers. We also know there were additional backers who joined after the Kickstarter closed. Seemingly at least 500, probably more than 1000 unless you want to claim they all have double-digit orders too. Yet, when the tracker started, there seem to have been fewer than 23,000 orders at the start. That does not add up to a substantial number of people with 10+ orders. Call it "assumption" or "speculation" all you want, but I think it's pretty clear that your estimate of only 500-600 backers on hold is wildly off... I have a large order that I locked in just once with no additions. My educated guess is that the majority of people decided what they wanted, locked it in, and never looked back.
  3. Given that you and your 5 orders are likely an outlier, the person assuming 10 orders per backer was just silly. Any remaining Wave 1 backers confirmed late and the vast majority are going to be just 1 order hence why they locked in late. Assuming the average of later waves are consistent with the 1.3 orders per backer, we are still talking about 4500 backers waiting. All depends how many, if any post-KS backers didn't ship today that have their items in stock...
  4. How do you arrive at that conclusion? There were 16,200 Kickstarter backers and somewhere north of 20,000 orders on the tracker at the beginning... Seems that each "order" is 1 pledger, so still 5500-6000 people waiting on Huts or Trees.
  5. Pretty sure they said 25mm scale aka 1 inch so will fit 1 inch squares.
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