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Everything posted by Lochar

  1. Thankfully it'll probably have the rough same buy in as Lycans 1 to buy another set.
  2. Hopefully it means there's a gazebo out there. Even if we don't get a mini, Mrs. Bones needs to fight one.
  3. You guys chased pretty hard on the stragglers from Bones 2. Did you finally get everyone or did you have to issue any refunds for ID:10T errors?
  4. One of us needs a new calculator, because I get $56 with those options. I'm pretty sure the shipping and taxes are the differences you are seeing. this is what us ROW are talking about. Maybe folks can understand better now. It's hefty. It's definitely holding back my pledge this time around. At least with the calculator you've got an estimate ahead of time for shipping, rather than get a big surprise after the kickstarter and have to adjust what you want then, or pony up additional funds.
  5. Yep, life disappeared when Mrs. Bones got jumped by the surprise SG. We probably get an extra life at a score of 1 million though. :)
  6. I'll take a new picture of mine this evening then with Khanjira. I may be remembering wrong.
  7. Not not-Tianot, although I imagine it'll be about this size. This one stands a bit taller than Khanjira.
  8. Yes, but to get the full kickstarter prices you need to pledge SOMETHING during the Kickstarter. (Wave 10 post Kickstarter pledgers ended up paying 30% more or so in most cases for Bones 2) Find a $1 pledge and grab it, or help everyone and just start at the $100 marker. :)
  9. Dammit, I'll wail and gnash and gripe and moan and be a whiny little bitca about it all I want. What else am I supposed to do at work during the day?
  10. I like your use of numbers and understand it's all with a grain of salt. But Bones 2 had more than 50% of its total pledgers already in on day 1, so I think that's not a big deal. Bones II did have some pretty bad slumps in the middle. I can see why Reaper would change their stretch goal strategy to deal with that. We and they don't know yet if it will pay off. It could be the right decision and we could still end up with a lower total. In Bones 2 something happened on Oct. 15 (which was also day 15) that started to turn things around. Was that publicity maybe? I made a spreadsheet but don't feel like it makes any sense to predict at this point. As of today, I'd predict $2.5mil. But it's possible better selecting stretch goals, or more appealing goals could turn that number back up. Or maybe somehow Reaper reaches an untapped market somewhere that joins later and pulls this higher. Who knows. I feel like so far the value is great and I know it is only going to get better. The low per pledge amount now is likely folks who don't know how to adjust their pledges or are waiting to choose, not disinterest. It was half grain of salt, half me hating the fact that we haven't seen nearly as many stretch goals as Bones 1 and 2 did yet. Which would be why I skewed the math to lean towards reducing the dollar amounts for the next stretch goals. If I wanted to make it look like Reaper is overwhelming us with value, I would have gotten the number of minis in the core set at current value versus what it was in Bones 1/2, etc. :D
  11. OK, before I get into anything, I'm going to put this here. Statistics are just another way to lie, so here's how I can twist the numbers. Take with whatever size grain of salt you want. Bones 1 had 17682 backers. Bones 2 had 14963 backers. So either we're not going to have as many backers in Bones 3, or we'll have the average of them, which is 16323. Which means we're either at or near half the total of backers that Bones 3 will get. And at only 50% of the average pledge as well, with much less add-ons currently to boost that number. Working with the assumption we can't change the stretch goals already hit and revealed. Bones 1, 2 million dollars was 38 stretch goals. Bones 2, 2 million dollars was 40 stretch goals. Bones 3, we have 17 stretch goals at 925k. To hit 39 stretch goals at 2 million dollars, the average stretch goal beyond what we know now can be no more than $48,864. Bones 1 didn't have a large opening, so we'll have to discard that result. Bones 2 was 26 days, in which $3,168,610 was raised. $1,173,418 in the first 48 hours and $801,685 in the last 48 hours. Leaving $1,193,507 for the other 22 days. Converting that to percentages, in the first 8% of the kickstarter time, 37% of the funding was raised. In the last 8%, 25% was raised. Leaving 38% to be raised in the remaining 84% of the time. If we use Bones 2 as a baseline then we're looking having 14 days versus 22 to raise 38% of the total possible funds.* Now, that line above has lots of fallacies that I'm totally ignoring because remember I'm lying to you with numbers.
  12. Just proves you can raise the same amount with almost 50% of the stretch goals. Yes, with 50% of the average pledge per person.
  13. Reaper is conducting an experiment to try and keep momentum in the middle of the Kickstarter. It could succeed, it could fail. I think as long as we keep hitting a stretch goal a day, it will all work out in the end. A single stretch goal a day isn't going to bring much excitement though, and it's not going to bring anywhere near the average pledge amount as Bones 1 and 2. Bones 1: 810k, 27 stretch goals completed. Bones 2: 810k, 26 stretch goals completed. Bones 3: 810k, 15 stretch goals completed. There's a pretty big difference in perceived (and likely the actual) value there.
  14. The nice thing about the invisible heroes is that they are using existing bones, so the molds are already there. It's just using a different plastic. So if these become really popular, we can keep our fingers crossed that there could be a #2. Since that's the case could they have tested how well they would do by putting them straight into retail? No, because there's still a minimum number they have to make with the different plastic. If not enough people pick it up in the pledge manager, Reaper can come back and say "Sorry, our minimum creation amount is 10k, and we only saw 3k picked up. We're refunding that portion, please rechoose." Retail they'd just have to eat all that extra plastic sitting around.
  15. With the large number of "$1 or more" backers (over 1,000) that will severely skew the number down. For instance, a single $1 pledge plus a $200 pledge would average to $100.50. Rather than looking at average pledge I would much rather have a mean and median measurement of the pledges. But that's the number cruncher in my head talking. yes, but we don't know how many people that pledged the $1 level are actually sitting on a dollar, either. They could be up to 25-30 dollars between a dragon and paint, or other things.
  16. We need more add-ons at the moment, as much as I hate to slow down the core pledge. We're still barely over 103 dollars average pledge, which means we need to get more people off of 'just the core' pledge.
  17. If nothing else, it'll fail out at the end of the Kickstarter and give you an opportunity to 'fix' your credit card.
  18. A friend and I are going in on one pledge. It's sitting at $800 right now, and I won't be surprised if we hit 1200 or better by the end.
  19. You sure he's still a friend? :P From everything Bryan's said about the Pledge Manager, I'd assume it will be and you can just keep adding things. Considering how long it was until Bones II locked, 3 will probably be open until Feburary or March, if we're still shooting for an on schedule August 2016 delivery.
  20. And now you can have him in Bones and metal. Act now, and you can have three for the price of three!
  21. So 640k and 710k are the next couple of goals most likely.
  22. Cycnet: No, once you get into the pledge manager you can spend your monies however you like, as far as I'm aware.
  23. You know, that paint set is labeled Paint Set A. Which means we might see a paint set B...
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