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odinsgrandson

Bones Supporter
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Everything posted by odinsgrandson

  1. odinsgrandson

    Looted Titan Claw

    Orks are terrific, aren’t they? While the aesthetics and logic behind most 40k factions tries to toe the line between Full Blanche and minimally plausible weapons of war, the Space Orks just embrace the most absurd logic (a red paint job actually makes it go faster). This conversion was created by my client- and I really love it. Orks looting vehicles from Imperial factions is always great, but there’s something especially amazing about looting the claw of a titan and turning it into a tank. For the paint job, the titan claw is meant to look like the Orks painted over the original Titan’s color scheme. To this end, some of the scratches in the red show blue and imperial insignias and patterns underneath.
  2. A few years ago, I proposed a funding pattern prediction model for big board game Kickstarters. It goes like this: - A project does about a third of its total in the initial surge which is usually concentrated on the first day. - The end spike (usually spread out in the last three days) brings in about as much total as the initial spike. - The slump days in the middle of the campaign tend to bring in about the same total as the first or last day. So I've been calling this the Thirds Prediction Model. Since I proposed it, I've tried applying it to many different Kickstarters, and I've discovered its limitations: - It is usually accurate to within about 10%. When I first started using this, new Kickstarters were as likely to be over by 10% as under. However, it seems as though more and more were under by 10% as time went on. - It does not work at all if you retroactively apply it to early Kickstarters- back when Kickstarter board games were just finding their audience. Those Kickstarters had much smaller initial spikes relative to their ending spikes because they were building their audience as they went. - It likewise does not work well for smaller board games- who also seem to build their audience as they go. - It does not work for non-board games. Video games, gadgets, clothing, etc. do not follow the same funding patterns at all. - It doesn't work if something goes horribly wrong. Kickstarters with many days of decreases in funding don't follow the pattern (like LOAD or Confrontation). - Starting in 2019, very few Kickstarters have followed this pattern. Most have had relatively smaller slumps and end spikes compared to their initial spikes. There are a number of potential reasons why this has happened. - It is possible that the Kickstarter audience has gotten more savvy- which might mean that a higher percentage of backers are whether to pledge right away, rather than waiting until the end to decide. - Timed Early Birds may be a factor, and they have become quite a lot more popular this year It is possible that many backers are grabbing timed EBs and deciding to drop them later. - Many of this year's Kickstarters have not been as add on heavy (end spikes are usually fueled by add ons). This is supported by the fact that Bones 5 is one of the few that did make it to within 10% of the prediction. - Better pre-launch advertising is very likely to be a factor in the larger starting spikes. Even many unknown companies have a good advertising strategy to get the word out ahead of time. I'm not sure why that would have changed this year, but it might have been gradually building in this direction. - Many Kickstarters this year have been following in the footsteps of Sprawling Campaign games like Kingdom Death: Monster, Gloomhaven and 7th Continent. Because of this, those campaigns keep quite a lot of aspects of their game secret. If the excitement is primarily about unknown entities rather than the next stretch goal, this could be the cause of the changed funding pattern. UPDATE- I just had another look at Zombicide 2nd edition's Kickstarter page, and it looks very likely to end within 10% of the prediction model (prediction was 3 mil, and it looks very likely to end between 2.7 mil and 3.3 mil). I have thought that Bones and Zombicide were the two most traditional Kickstarters from this year, which might indicate that it is the projects, and not the audience, that has changed.
  3. odinsgrandson

    The Slow Death of the Thirds Funding Predictor

    I think it is the other way around. Established companies are the ones behind the biggest Kickstarters, brand new brands that no one has heard of are a lot less likely to have those huge day one numbers. And established companies are the ones who need to do the least work marketing themselves (since their audience is actively seeking them out, rather than the other way around). CMON started doing 14 day Kickstarters because it makes the slump in the middle less tiresome. And I think it works for them pretty well (at least their 30 day projects don't seem to do better than their 14 day projects). I can imagine that having a long funding period might be good for a campaign. Kingdom Death 1.5 did pass through several pay periods, and I know at least some folks were setting aside that money for some of the new expansions they unveiled. The length of the campaign has never seemed to change the pattern of funding very much- at least down to two weeks, they still do a third of their finished funding in the initial burst. I haven't tracked many campaigns that were shorter than two weeks (they are pretty rare) but the ones I have followed did not keep the same funding pattern.
  4. odinsgrandson

    The Slow Death of the Thirds Funding Predictor

    I can see that. Mind, that's just taking the end surge and spreading it out throughout the middle days. Which might have changed the pattern around, but it didn't change the prediction (since I was just tripling the initial surge). Of course, Bones 5 was one of the few Kickstarters this year that actually followed the model (10% below prediction, which is pretty normal). I do think it is telling that the only Kickstarters that have followed the model recently seem to have been 10% low. This makes me think that we're slowly moving toward larger starts and smaller finishes. Possibly. One of the ways in which Kickstarter works as a marketing tool is by having a carthartic arc (the tension of "will we make that last goal?" and the release at the end). The shared story of a campaign can help to build an audience with a sense of unity and seriously ramp up excitement. If end spikes start to drop lower, then we might start losing some of that aspect. On the other hand, Kickstarter will remain as a good way to make direct pre-sales with relatively low risk. The increase in the starting spikes is evidence that the Kickstarter audience is ready to pledge right away for games they want.
  5. odinsgrandson

    The Slow Death of the Thirds Funding Predictor

    Ah. Good that you bring that up. Most first time creators make what I would call "smaller projects." I don't really have a number value to give to this, but first time creators tend to not to reach multi-million dollar levels unless their name and brand are well known and very trusted. First time creators of 'smaller projects' fund OVER the prediction of their initial burst. Meaning that they have relatively smaller starting spikes and build up to larger end spikes. This pattern is similar to what we saw in the early days of Kickstarter- on day 29 of your campaign, there are still a lot of new people just finding out about it and jumping in. (If there are red flags other than being a first time creator, then the funding pattern is very different. Look at LOAD, Overturn and Controntation for extreme examples of backers losing trust). - When a first time creator DOES manage to pull off a really massive Kickstarter, it is usually because they're a well known company that already has a strong audience or at least an easily recognized brand name. - The only example I can think of of an unknown first time creator this year is Shadowborne and their game:Oathsworn. The initial spike put funding over a million, but since then they've only drawn in $800k. Keep in mind that end spikes tend to be spread out over the last three days, so there's really no chance that it will approach the $3 mil that the thirds model predicts by the time the campaign ends. They also used Timed Early Birds (you get a mystery extra thing if you pledged in the first 24 hours). Most Early Birds do not change the funding patterns, but EBs on a timer is a common factor for a lot of the Kickstarters this year that have not followed the prediction model.
  6. odinsgrandson

    PARODY - The Locked Bones We Didn't See

    But where are the chibis?
  7. odinsgrandson

    Sugar Realms: Candy Golem STL files and a new 5e race

    dude, I love these sculpts
  8. odinsgrandson

    Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood

    Kingdom Death 1.5 did daily unlocks for everything. They had a daily roll for the Gambler's Chest, daily reveals for what was already included in the 1.5 upgrade pack, and non-funding related unlocks for new stuff (new expansions, new pinups, and even reprints of some old stuff). They did one update every day, and nothing was unlocked via traditional stretch goals. You figure that happens when you hit 4 million on the first day. Middara's issue was mostly that the unlocks themselves didn't incite a lot of excitement. Kingdom Death's daily reveals did (and they did include some fanfare- like the "trap" where Adam wouldn't reveal any more stuff until someone beat his extremely difficult Mario Maker level). Trudvang added daily unlocks when it started to slip (they kept up with funding unlocks as well, so it just looked like a lot of extra stuff). I don't think that daily unlocks makes a Kickstarter funding lower,. I mean, there are some people who are increasing their pledge in the hopes that it contributes to reaching the next goal. The purpose is to take some of the pressure off, or to space things out 'just right.' It is clear that a lot of the bigger Kickstarters just make up goals based on what they think they'll reach in the next day or so, rather than how much they legitimately need to produce the extra content. If the pace drops, backers start getting kind of disgruntled, and the comments section gets pretty negative. From a funding standpoint, the Gambler's Chest was received just fine. There was a backer or two in the comments who were decrying that there should be more stuff since it was funded so high, but other backers kept telling them to back down. - As for Oathsworn, well, before Kickstarter, awesome miniatures releases were rare enough that I felt like I needed to try and get them whenever they came out. After Kickstarter, they've become common enough that I seriously need to pass on a lot of the best looking minis releases, because I'll never be able to paint them all. This year, I'm starting to think the same thing is happening with games. I'd love to play quite a lot of the games that have Kickstarted this year, but there are now too many that look awesome, and no way that I'll be able to play them all. Got to start passing on some that look great now. (mind, a friend of mine is in for Oathsworn, so I'm planning to play with him anyway).
  9. odinsgrandson

    Modest Medusa Miniatures

    I got the chance to paint up some miniatures for a project to bring the Modest Medusa webcomic into the minaitures world. These were all sculpted by Brian Phelps, and I think every one of them sculpts is super cute. I'm going to get to do some more of them for backers, since the project is pretty nicely overfunded. Anyway, here are all of the very cute Medusa minis I painted for them.
  10. odinsgrandson

    Sanguinius

    I feel that there’s little reason to deny that the primarch miniatures that Forge World has released are some of the best minis ever sculpted for Games Workshop. Unfortunately, I lost the pictures we took of the first primarch I had the opportunity to paint, but I got good pictures of this one. This is Sanguinius, one of the most powerful and loyal of primarch, despite his rather obvious mutation.
  11. odinsgrandson

    Sanguinius

    Oooh, I wonder if any of my clients are looking to have the Forge World Abbadon done up. A good while ago, I got to paint up a converted Abbadon that was really well done (he was mostly re-sized to fit in with the newer Terminators, and he was made from a mix of bits, but still very easy to recognize). But that was before the Primaris era.
  12. odinsgrandson

    Confrontation: Classic

    Don't forget the "Choose Cthulhu" Kickstarter campaign that got shut down for copyright reasons. After that, they decided that the best thing for their company and their backers was to abandon the print projects that they can't do anymore anyway. That allows them to focus on Confrontation. But the Confrontation royalties are being paid to a guy who works at Sans Detour, so they probably won't be forgetting to pay them like they did with Chaosium.
  13. Succubus Publishing fulfilled (very late) on their first Kickstarter, and have returned for a reprint, along with two sequel games. They've been updating their Kickstarter preview, and should be launching later today. Middara: Unintentional Malum- The Complete Trilogy
  14. odinsgrandson

    Chibi Gloomhaven (spoilers linked)

    So I like playing Gloomhaven, but I really don't care for standees. Since I had been making chibis for Kingdom Death and Warhammer Quest, it seemed strangely reasonable to me to 'simply' replace every standee and character mini with custom made chibi minis. Yeah, it didn't end up being all that simple, but it has been a really fun project. Let's start out with the PC classes: The Inox Brute. This was the first Chibi Gloomhaven character that I finished. I was very excited to make him. The body comes from a Cyclopes from Impact! Miniatures. The head is mostly my own sculpt- although I did have some plastic horns leftover from various GW kits. The orchid spellweaver was a really fun one to make. She started life as two separate ninjas from Ninja All Stars (head and body). I really liked sculpting all of the crystals on her. The Vermling gave me a bit of trouble. I needed something between a goblin and a Skaven, that could also fit in with the chibis I'd been making. I looked around for ones that would fit the style well, and eventually discovered that the Wiz-Kids Pathfinder Goblins were close to perfect. They just needed their ears fixed and tails attached. The human Scoundrel. I made here eyes glow to match the artwork (my wife played this character, but it definitely took her a minute to recognize that the character was, in fact, human. Later, someone pointed out to me that she's wearing a mask in the artwork. The Quartryl Tinkerer was a lot of fun. He's got a sort of steampunk look about him that really doesn't match most of Gloomhaven's technology level And here's the Savaas Cragheart. Ready to destroy all of the scenery. And, of course, there are the locked characters. I'm hiding them behind links to protect people who haven't unlocked them yet. [url=http://www.gardenninja.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/gloomhaven-spoilers/gh-valrath-sunkeeper.jpg?i=1223375018]Sun[/url] Moon Cthulhu Three Spears Two Miniatures Angry Face Circles There are a few heroes that I still need to finish and get pictures, so I'll come back and update again. But there are also monsters. A lot of the monsters for Gloomhaven fit into some group that I already have for Super Dungeon (Zombies, Skeletons, Slimes, etc). For others, I found chibi miniatures that works quite well, but for many of the most distinctive ones, I built custom miniatures. None of these minis are 100% sculpted from green stuff, but very few of them don't have at least some green stuff on them.
  15. odinsgrandson

    Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood

    My first thought as well when I heard of this. I'm kind of surprised that they went with a title that had been used before.
  16. odinsgrandson

    Middara: Unintentional Malum - The Complete Trilogy

    I suspect that they'll allow it, but the price will probably go up for people who wait.
  17. odinsgrandson

    Kingdom Death White Lion

    This is a White Lion from Kingdom Death that I painted pretty recently. I think it is really easy for white to look plain, even when it is done well, so I went with a very colorful white. I did a quite write up on some of the techniques I've been doing recently to make painting white more interesting. Anyway, here's the lion. I haven't posted anything to Coolmini in a while, so I decided to post this one up. Here it is if you care to vote.
  18. odinsgrandson

    Kingdom Death White Lion

    Kingdom Death Monster starts out with four survivors 'waking up' in a strange place- and very soon a white lion attacks. As you discover bits of information, it becomes clear that he wasn't coincidentally walking by when the survivors awoke. Like- he was waiting for them to appear so that he could attack and eat them. Hence- spawn camping.
  19. odinsgrandson

    Chibi Gloomhaven (spoilers linked)

    I'm in the middle of two campaigns right now (one meets every other Friday, and the other meets on every other Sunday)
  20. odinsgrandson

    Chibi Gloomhaven (spoilers linked)

    The amount of sculpting on these varies a lot. I don't mind doing a lot of work on heroes or bosses, but for monster groups you usually need six or ten of them. And with the sheer number of groups, I wasn't about to sculpt the whole of any of them from scratch. - The Harrowers each have a Mr. or Ms. Bones head. Their bodies come from various bones minis. They didn't need to be Chibi minis for this, I just cut off the lower half of various robed characters and used that. - The Vermlings are made from Pathfinder Goblins (I used the cheap Wizkids ones because they have the largest heads). I mostly just painted them to look more rat-like (the texture is painted on). I did add their tails (they're just wire that I use for pinning) and added a little bit of green stuff behind their ears. - Tee ancient artillery was actually pretty straight forward. I made them from various leftover Warjack bits that I had. Some of them are guns, but some of them are shoulders that looked enough like they could be turrets. - The Inox were pretty crazy. I needed sixteen of them, so there's no way I was sculpting every one of their heads. I had horns from my bits box, though- so I sculpted one head and made a green stuff mold (from Instamold/Oyumaru) and cast the other 15 from that. I attached these to various short bodies- mostly dwarves- and added some easy to sculpt things to them like the fur pelts. The different eye shapes that they have all comes from painting (I use dark black lines, and that lets me paint outside the lines a bit).
  21. odinsgrandson

    Reaper Bones 5 : Enthusiasm and Commentary Thread

    Or possibly word has gotten around that Bones has improved in quality (with Bones 4 and Bones Black).
  22. odinsgrandson

    Reaper Bones 5 : Enthusiasm and Commentary Thread

    One thing to note is that Kickstarter funding patterns have changed this year. Many of the bigger Kickstarters have smaller finishing surges relative to their initial surges. That's not to say that Bones 5 won't finish higher than all previous Bones campaigns, but the medium isn't as predictable as in years past.
  23. odinsgrandson

    Super Kingdom Death Explore!

    So I really like board games with cool minis. Two of the board games that I’ve spent the most time playing are Kingdom Death: Monster and Super Dungeon Explore! Both are great games with fantastic minis- although the tones each use could hardly be farther apart. The developers of these games know each other, and When both games went to Kickstarter, they took the opportunity to do a cool cross over. So means that we got a really cute chibi of the Twilight Knight. She makes a great mini, and I’d have been happy to leave it off there, but the fluff on her card implies that if those super cute Super Dungeon characters go into the Nether Rift in their seting, they end up in the brutal and bloody hell world of Kingdom Death. So I got to thinking about this, and decided that I really needed to expand on this idea of the cute little chibis on the Planes of Faces. Yes, these are all playable, and I'm going to continue to create Chibi versions of Kingdom Death monsters.
  24. odinsgrandson

    Super Kingdom Death Explore!

    Thanks. That's exactly what I was going for. He has totally wrecked our party, stabbing us with stakes or impaling us on pikes, etc.
  25. odinsgrandson

    Super Kingdom Death Explore!

    I created this mini a little while ago, but for some reason I missed showing him off. This is my chibi version of the Manhunter nemesis monster for Chibi Kingdom Death. The core mini started its life as a cowboy robot from Rail Raiders Infinite, so he's come a long way to get here. For the base, I wanted to create a chibi version of a base that I had previously made for the proper Manhunter mini.
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