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odinsgrandson

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Posts posted by odinsgrandson

  1. 1 hour ago, mvincent said:

     

    Exactly (mythological speaking). But when it's talked about on say, a gaming miniatures forum, the Gygaxian creation is the default assumption.

      

     

    He'd likely be melancholy without needing a reason. But yeah: I like mythos stuff for the gaming and miniatures: I'm a Peterson fan rather than a Lovecraft one.

     

    (..fwiw: I'm pretty sure Cthulhu can vary her size as desired though)

     

     

    I'm not certain that Cthulhu can vary in size as desired (not like Nyarlathotep).  But sightings of Cthulhu tend to be accompanied by incomprehensible geometry and a certain malleability of space itself.

    The trap door that opens in Call of Cthulhu to let the Great Old One out is described as one of these- the sailors couldn't decide if it was sitting flat against the ground or at a 45 degree angle.

    One viewer might see Cthulhu and reason him to be 120 feet tall, and another reason him to be 750 feet tall, and a third reason him to be a mere 20 feet tall and none of them necessarily be wrong.

     

     

     

    As for Howard Lovecraft's opinion of us... he hated games.  I doubt he'd approve of us in any way.
    Not that I mind, Lovecraft hated a lot of things that I don't (like non-white humans).

    • Like 2
  2. 16 hours ago, mvincent said:

     

    Heh: that's kinda like saying Gygax was wrong about the size of the Tarrasque. Sandy Peterson is the source material material for CoC (which inspired most of the Cthulhu craze). He might've been inspired by certain sources, but I don't really read this Lovecraft guy you speak of ;) (who was sorta imprecise anyway when describing Cthulhu as "miles high").

     

     


     

     

    - Gygax is wrong about the size of the Terrasque.  And its appearance and species (it was a dragon from French folklore, and there's a town named after it with a big statue of the Terrasque in the square).  Also, it was taken down by a single bard.


    But if we're talking about Peterson in the creation role, I still find him to be an unreliable source.  Kind of like how George Lucas was wrong about MidiChlorians granting force powers.

     

    - Lovecraft did describe Cthulhu as Miles High- the viewpoint character in this case was Wilcox who had encountered Cthulhu in a dream.  The Reddit thread uses Johan's journal entry instead, which should be considered a more reliable source (if anyone witnessing Cthulhu can be considered reliable for any facts)

     

    16 hours ago, ced1106 said:



    That's pretty cool.

    To take that a step further, if we say that six feet is represented by thirty milimeters, then a miniature of Cthulhu should be 24-30 inches tall.

    That's closer to CMON's 22 inch estimate than Peterson's 72 inch estimate.

    • Like 2
  3. - Ok, I saw the "English version is KS Exclusive" on the front page, but I had a hard time believing it.

    Seriously, the English version is the one they aren't going to be producing?  While they're going to make extra copies of every other language they're printing in?

    I understand the economics of making the whole game KS exclusive (or Kickstarter and Webstore Exclusive).  Incursion was the first game I heard say that retail wasn't a profitable option.  But aren't the costs of producing the game for retail in Spanish and German comparable to producing it in English?


     

  4. I couldn't find a topic for Dawn of Madness- which seems odd for such a high profile Kickstarter with some cool looking miniatures renders.

    I had a look at the Dawn of Madness Kickstarter when it first launched, and it seemed like it was doing rather well.

    But I had a gander at its Kickstrack, and it looks like something isn't going right.

    dailypledges.png


    Big Kickstarters from known companies usually don't lose funding for many days in a row.  Do we know what went wrong here?  Has something happened to make people lose confidence?

  5. On 12/13/2019 at 4:13 PM, mvincent said:

     

    I thought I might have buyers remorse (after all: Sandy Peterson has stated that at 28mm scale, a real person could serve as Cthulhu). But now I'm very glad to have purchased it; it's easily the most epic of all the miniatures I own!

     

    My condolences to those without a garage or attic for storage. Maybe just put it on the exercycle that's gathering dust?

     

     

    My R'lyeh Rising has a prominent place in our living room- with candles on either side of him.


    On the size- Sandy Peterson is wrong. 

    There's a thing about constantly making big monsters even bigger, and then even bigger and bigger and it gets really silly.  Why do Kaiju of today need to be an order of magnitude larger than they were in the '60s?  Peterson says NOW that Cthulhu would be six foot tall, but give him a few years and he'll claim Cthulhu should be played by your house.

     

     

     


    The scale on Cthulhu that is given in the Lovecraft is mostly just "vaguely large" (Lovecraft is vague first and foremost).   The closest thing to a specific size that is given is the fact that- a yacht is able to split his head apart.  I have a gaming scale yacht, and it seems about right.  If he were six feet tall, I rather think that the image only gets more comical (maybe Cthulhu's head is like a big balloon).


    It should also be noted that the two foot Cthulhu already dwarfs every living creature that we know about.  It is a lot bigger than even the lagest of dinosaurs, the biggest estimates for Megalodon and the blue whale (whose length is between two thirds and three quarters of Cthulhu's height).

    • Like 3
  6. On 9/21/2019 at 11:30 AM, Talae said:

    How much of the Core Game are you up to in Chibi form now?


    I've got all of the core game monsters in Chibi except the Gold Smoke Knight.  I've got several expansion monsters finished as well.

    I'm still missing a few- especially the Slenderman and Lion Knight.  I'll get those, though.

    I really appreciate it when other sculptors take up the mantle and make a wonderful chibi version of a Kingdom Death characters too.



    This miniature was sculpted by Brian Phelp[s of Chibitriot Creations, and I had a great time painting him.  Obviously, he fits right in.


    I did not use the base that Brian made for him (I’ve been making so many face bases, I figured I’d just use my own).


    chibi-twilight-knight.jpg?i=636795451&wi
     

    • Like 15
  7. On 12/8/2019 at 8:54 PM, Iridil said:

    I like this color scheme - and fantastic base!

     

     

     

    Thanks.  I really like making these face bases.  The faces are made from making press molds of doll faces with Oyumaru- I pretty much use those molds as my green stuff sink.

  8. I've backed a decent number of projects because I want to decide later or simply keep an eye on it.  If we discount all of those, then:

    - 15 Successfully Delivered Projects

    - 6 Outstanding Projects

    - 4 Partially Delivered projects

    - 2 Dead Projects

    My two completely dead projects are Super Dungeon Legends and Relic Knights 2.  SDL looks like it may never deliver, but for Relic Knights, all I pledged for was the updated card deck, and it looks fairly likely that that will be delivered.

    • Like 6
  9. On 11/4/2019 at 12:35 PM, lowlylowlycook said:

     

    I guess that I was thinking that companies had to do marketing (at least through previous KSers) to get those get those 1st day pledges. 


    I think it is the other way around.  Established companies are the ones behind the biggest Kickstarters, brand new brands that no one has heard of are a lot less likely to have those huge day one numbers.   And established companies are the ones who need to do the least work marketing themselves (since their audience is actively seeking them out, rather than the other way around).

    23 hours ago, Gadgetman! said:

    There are examples of complete unknowns doing incredibly well on their first KS, but that's less and less likely to happen these days. 

     

    The first 3D printing pen did 'rather well'. 

    One thing that made everyone feel more comfortable was that they had planned for a flood of backers by staggered waves of pledges, something that very few others have done since.    

     

    Timed early birds with massive discounts is actually something that will make me more cautious about backing. 

     

    Most projects have the 'mid-project doldrums' in their backing. 

    Reaper manages to partially avoid it by introducing add-ons throughout the backing period, and with so many initial backers that adds funds as those add-ons becomes available they manage to keep the activity up and the enthusiasm and social chatter high.    

     

    The opposite approach is Oathsworn's short projects, usually a week or so(everone remember the 24hour project? that was... fun... )  

    They probably don't expect many new backers, but are basing their projects on returning backers and word of mouth in tabletop gaming circles. And then you don't need a long funding period.     

     

     

     

    CMON started doing 14 day Kickstarters because it makes the slump in the middle less tiresome.  And I think it works for them pretty well (at least their 30 day projects don't seem to do better than their 14 day projects).

    I can imagine that having a long funding period might be good for a campaign.  Kingdom Death 1.5 did pass through several pay periods, and I know at least some folks were setting aside that money for some of the new expansions they unveiled.

    The length of the campaign has never seemed to change the pattern of funding very much- at least down to two weeks, they still do a third of their finished funding in the initial burst.  I haven't tracked many campaigns that were shorter than two weeks (they are pretty rare) but the ones I have followed did not keep the same funding pattern.

    • Like 1
  10. 1 hour ago, pinkymadigan said:

    I think Reaper's Pledge Manager, while a great thing for Reaper, and those without a lot of upfront funds, probably hurts the end surge as well. Those of us who just don't want to keep up with the final day or two can tune out if we want, knowing we can catch up later.

     

     

    I can see that.  Mind, that's just taking the end surge and spreading it out throughout the middle days.  Which might have changed the pattern around, but it didn't change the prediction (since I was just tripling the initial surge).  Of course, Bones 5 was one of the few Kickstarters this year that actually followed the model (10% below prediction, which is pretty normal). 

    I do think it is telling that the only Kickstarters that have followed the model recently seem to have been 10% low.  This makes me think that we're slowly moving toward larger starts and smaller finishes.

     

    3 minutes ago, lowlylowlycook said:

    I wonder if this means that Kickstarter is becoming less useful as a marketing tool.

     

     

    Possibly.  One of the ways in which Kickstarter works as a marketing tool is by having a carthartic arc (the tension of "will we make that last goal?" and the release at the end).  The shared story of a campaign can help to build an audience with a sense of unity and seriously ramp up excitement.

    If end spikes start to drop lower, then we might start losing some of that aspect.

    On the other hand, Kickstarter will remain as a good way to make direct pre-sales with relatively low risk.  The increase in the starting spikes is evidence that the Kickstarter audience is ready to pledge right away for games they want.

    • Like 1
  11. 1 hour ago, Bob Hazlewood said:

    I wonder how well this hold up when you take first-time creators vs multiple project creators.  I know for myself, I've grown very leery of first-time creators, and am more likely to wait towards the end of a campaign for those.

     

     

    Ah.  Good that you bring that up.

    Most first time creators make what I would call "smaller projects."  I don't really have a number value to give to this, but first time creators tend to not to reach multi-million dollar levels unless their name and brand are well known and very trusted.

    First time creators of 'smaller projects' fund OVER the prediction of their initial burst.  Meaning that they have relatively smaller starting spikes and build up to larger end spikes.  This pattern is similar to what we saw in the early days of Kickstarter- on day 29 of your campaign, there are still a lot of new people just finding out about it and jumping in.
     

    (If there are red flags other than being a first time creator, then the funding pattern is very different.  Look at LOAD, Overturn and Controntation for extreme examples of backers losing trust).
     

     

    - When a first time creator DOES manage to pull off a really massive Kickstarter, it is usually because they're a well known company that already has a strong audience or at least an easily recognized brand name.

     


     


    - The only example I can think of of an unknown first time creator this year is Shadowborne and their game:Oathsworn.  The initial spike put funding over a million, but since then they've only drawn in $800k.  Keep in mind that end spikes tend to be spread out over the last three days, so there's really no chance that it will approach the $3 mil that the thirds model predicts by the time the campaign ends.

    They also used Timed Early Birds (you get a mystery extra thing if you pledged in the first 24 hours).  Most Early Birds do not change the funding patterns, but EBs on a timer is a common factor for a lot of the Kickstarters this year that have not followed the prediction model.

    • Like 1
  12. A few years ago, I proposed a funding pattern prediction model for big board game Kickstarters.  It goes like this:

    - A project does about a third of its total in the initial surge which is usually concentrated on the first day.
    - The end spike (usually spread out in the last three days) brings in about as much total as the initial spike.
    - The slump days in the middle of the campaign tend to bring in about the same total as the first or last day.

    So I've been calling this the Thirds Prediction Model.  Since I proposed it, I've tried applying it to many different Kickstarters, and I've discovered its limitations:

    - It is usually accurate to within about 10%.  When I first started using this, new Kickstarters were as likely to be over by 10% as under.  However, it seems as though more and more were under by 10% as time went on.

    - It does not work at all if you retroactively apply it to early Kickstarters- back when Kickstarter board games were just finding their audience.  Those Kickstarters had much smaller initial spikes relative to their ending spikes because they were building their audience as they went.

    - It likewise does not work well for smaller board games- who also seem to build their audience as they go.

    - It does not work for non-board games.  Video games, gadgets, clothing, etc. do not follow the same funding patterns at all.

    - It doesn't work if something goes horribly wrong.  Kickstarters with many days of decreases in funding don't follow the pattern (like LOAD or Confrontation).
     

     


    - Starting in 2019, very few Kickstarters have followed this pattern. Most have had relatively smaller slumps and end spikes compared to their initial spikes.   There are a number of potential reasons why this has happened. 

    - It is possible that the Kickstarter audience has gotten more savvy- which might mean that a higher percentage of backers are whether to pledge right away, rather than waiting until the end to decide.

    - Timed Early Birds may be a factor, and they have become quite a lot more popular this year  It is possible that many backers are grabbing timed EBs and deciding to drop them later.

    - Many of this year's Kickstarters have not been as add on heavy (end spikes are usually fueled by add ons).  This is supported by the fact that Bones 5 is one of the few that did make it to within 10% of the prediction.


    - Better pre-launch advertising is very likely to be a factor in the larger starting spikes.  Even many unknown companies have a good advertising strategy to get the word out ahead of time.  I'm not sure why that would have changed this year, but it might have been gradually building in this direction.
     

    - Many Kickstarters this year have been following in the footsteps of Sprawling Campaign games like Kingdom Death: Monster, Gloomhaven and 7th Continent.  Because of this, those campaigns keep quite a lot of aspects of their game secret.  If the excitement is primarily about unknown entities rather than the next stretch goal, this could be the cause of the changed funding pattern.

     


    UPDATE- I just had another look at Zombicide 2nd edition's Kickstarter page, and it looks very likely to end within 10% of the prediction model (prediction was 3 mil, and it looks very likely to end between 2.7 mil and 3.3 mil).  I have thought that Bones and Zombicide were the two most traditional Kickstarters from this year, which might indicate that it is the projects, and not the audience, that has changed.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 3
  13. On 10/12/2019 at 2:17 PM, ced1106 said:

    KDM did something like daily unlocks with their Gambler's Chest, but with more fanfare (rolling dice to see which item was unlocked). 

     

    Middara's were predictable standee upgrades to plastic, so mebbe that was why it wasn't as well received?

     

     

    Kingdom Death 1.5 did daily unlocks for everything.  They had a daily roll for the Gambler's Chest, daily reveals for what was already included in the 1.5 upgrade pack, and non-funding related unlocks for new stuff (new expansions, new pinups, and even reprints of some old stuff).  They did one update every day, and nothing was unlocked via traditional stretch goals.  You figure that happens when you hit 4 million on the first day.


    Middara's issue was mostly that the unlocks themselves didn't incite a lot of excitement.  Kingdom Death's daily reveals did (and they did include some fanfare- like the "trap" where Adam wouldn't reveal any more stuff until someone beat his extremely difficult Mario Maker level).

    Trudvang added daily unlocks when it started to slip (they kept up with funding unlocks as well, so it just looked like a lot of extra stuff).

     

     


    I don't think that daily unlocks makes a Kickstarter funding lower,.  I mean, there are some people who are increasing their pledge in the hopes that it contributes to reaching the next goal.

    The purpose is to take some of the pressure off, or to space things out 'just right.'  It is clear that a lot of the bigger Kickstarters just make up goals based on what they think they'll reach in the next day or so, rather than how much they legitimately need to produce the extra content.  If the pace drops, backers start getting kind of disgruntled, and the comments section gets pretty negative.

    On 10/14/2019 at 3:24 AM, aku-chan said:

     

    Possibly, but even the Gamblers Chest didn't go over that well. Not having stretch goals just seems to totally freak some people out.

     

     

     

    From a funding standpoint, the Gambler's Chest was received just fine.  There was a backer or two in the comments who were decrying that there should be more stuff since it was funded so high, but other backers kept telling them to back down.





    - As for Oathsworn, well, before Kickstarter, awesome miniatures releases were rare enough that I felt like I needed to try and get them whenever they came out.  After Kickstarter, they've become common enough that I seriously need to pass on a lot of the best looking minis releases, because I'll never be able to paint them all.

    This year, I'm starting to think the same thing is happening with games.  I'd love to play quite a lot of the games that have Kickstarted this year, but there are now too many that look awesome, and no way that I'll be able to play them all.  Got to start passing on some that look great now.

    (mind, a friend of mine is in for Oathsworn, so I'm planning to play with him anyway).

  14. On 10/17/2019 at 10:01 AM, Jellyranger69 said:

    Very cool piece and stunning work, I’m hoping to snag Abaddon soon. 

     

     

    Oooh, I wonder if any of my clients are looking to have the Forge World Abbadon done up.

    A good while ago, I got to paint up a converted Abbadon that was really well done (he was mostly re-sized to fit in with the newer Terminators, and he was made from a mix of bits, but still very easy to recognize).  But that was before the Primaris era.

    • Like 1
  15. 4 hours ago, Orlando_the_Technicoloured said:

    https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/sansdetour/confrontation-classic-the-legendary-skirmish-game/posts/2653364?fbclid=IwAR2kCaB0h7v20ibyJulocAdK6kRFP46EsyrZQ0UlEELsZcLH11Y60FcWy44

     

    "Trying to be everywhere meant we were getting nowhere. This is why we made the following announcement in September: Sans-Détour will reduce their book publishing activity in order to focus its energy and resources on the Confrontation project."

     

    well that and you've not paid companies whose work you've being translating, and now that's out in the open your not going to get as much other chances to do the same to others

     

     

     

    Don't forget the "Choose Cthulhu" Kickstarter campaign that got shut down for copyright reasons.  After that, they decided that the best thing for their company and their backers was to abandon the print projects that they can't do anymore anyway.  That allows them to focus on Confrontation.

    But the Confrontation royalties are being paid to a guy who works at Sans Detour, so they probably won't be forgetting to pay them like they did with Chaosium.
     

    • Like 3
  16.  

    On 9/26/2019 at 9:55 PM, Darsc Zacal said:

    Oh... Okay.

    NOT the Oathsworn of Burrows and Badgers fame.

     

    I was confuzzled there for a moment.

     

     

    My first thought as well when I heard of this.  I'm kind of surprised that they went with a title that had been used before.

  17. On 7/23/2019 at 7:59 AM, aku-chan said:

    My current plan is to just get Act 1 for now, and if I like it enough, try to get Acts 2, 3 and maybe the pirate adventure later (I'm hoping they allow people to add things between shipping waves).

     

     

    I suspect that they'll allow it, but the price will probably go up for people who wait.

  18. On 5/21/2019 at 4:04 PM, TGP said:

    OK

     

    I voted. I think?

     

    I stabbed at 10 and the whole page went away. So maybe it didn’t count? I don’t really understand CMoN. Anyway, here’s hoping I offset some goon that gave it a 2.  

     

     

    Whut?

    Game Rules reference.....?

     

     

     

    Kingdom Death Monster starts out with four survivors 'waking up' in a strange place- and very soon a white lion attacks.

    As you discover bits of information, it becomes clear that he wasn't coincidentally walking by when the survivors awoke.  Like- he was waiting for them to appear so that he could attack and eat them.

    Hence- spawn camping.

    • Like 2
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