Statistical comparison

[abngi]

Are upgrades worth it?  An Ace/Ace/+1Arm Rhino costs about the same as 2 stock ones.  Now, if I calculated it right:

 

Regular Rhino gains TL vs Ace 21% of the time

Ace Rhino gains TL vs Regular 72% of the time

 

which weights the damage chart, leading to:

 

Regular Rhino vs Ace causes:

1 damage 21% of the time

2 damage 5% of the time

3 damage 1% of the time

and cannot do higher damage.

 

Ace Rhino vs Regular causes:

1 damage 34% of the time

2 damage 21% of the time

3 damage 12% of the time

4 damage 3% of the time

critical damage 4% of the time

 

These are the chances with a single Maxim shot; it will be 4 Regular shots vs 2 Ace shots, plus the missile shots, but I didn't model it out that far yet.  I will come back later and add in the effects of the missiles and multiple shots, to get an average damage result.

[Ulyss Brisonne]

Maths ain't my strong point, but does that mean the regs have it? If two of them have a 5% chance of causing 2 damage that equals 4 damage, which is better than the Ace's 3% chance of four damage, plus the Ace has to split its fire between two targets. Is this right or do I not get it?

[General308]

Yes you get it.  If average holds of this the Ace rhino kills one regular Rhino but then dies at about the same time leaving one regular Rhino remaining.    

 

There is strength in numbers my friends

[abngi]

There is strength in numbers my friends

That's what I'm hoping - I'm trying to end the "max upgrades is broken" debate.  Now, ignoring the missiles, the Ace will cause 2.9 damage points, and the Regulars will cause 1.4 (then again, the Ace will flat out destroy a Regular 1.5% of the time).

 

I really need to get a life - this whole "refining my math and computer skills" justification is wearing thin.

[Chrome]

Those are pretty close.  You can see the numbers I came up with at http://www.mil-net.net/commsta....hpage=1 just ignore my rant there towards the end.

 

There's one thing that you're overlooking with the Ace Rhino here; its survivability vs models *not* carrying Maxim Ones.  That +7 ARM rating is a nightmare to overcome compared to a Reg Rhino's +4.  Add in an ARM upgrade and its even worse.

[Chrome]

Maths ain't my strong point, but does that mean the regs have it? If two of them have a 5% chance of causing 2 damage that equals 4 damage, which is better than the Ace's 3% chance of four damage, plus the Ace has to split its fire between two targets. Is this right or do I not get it?

Wait, I just double checked those numbers and there's a huge factor that abngi is leaving out.  Those numbers are cumalitive!

 

When an Ace Rhino w/TL shoots at a Regular Rhino, there's a 79% chance that it will do at least 1 point of damage. So if you were to roll that % chance on d100, it would look like this...

 

1-20  = 0 DT

21-54 = 1 DT

55-79 = 2 DT

80-90 = 3 DT

91-94 = 4 DT

95-100 = Critical

 

So here are the real numbers:

Ace Rhino w/TL = 79% chance of hitting Regular

Ace Rhino w/o TL = 55% chance of hitting

 

Reg Rhino w/TL = 55% chance of hitting Ace

Reg Rhino w/o TL = 25% chance of hitting

 

And remember that abngi's numbers for TL are pretty good (I get 75% chance to TL for the Ace) so the Rhino is going to get TL more than 3 times as often as the Regular.  I'd say the Ace Rhino will wipe the floor with the other guys.

[abngi]

Wait, I just double checked those numbers and there's a huge factor that abngi is leaving out.  Those numbers are cumalitive!

1-20  = 0 DT

21-54 = 1 DT

55-79 = 2 DT

80-90 = 3 DT

91-94 = 4 DT

95-100 = Critical

Hmm.  My chart worked out to:

1-26  = 0 DT

27-60 = 1 DT

61-81 = 2 DT

82-93 = 3 DT

94-96 = 4 DT

97-100 = Critical

 

But our differences in TL % could account for the differences.  Maybe we should swap spreadsheets to see where the differences originate.  Or, if you plug my 72% TL into your damage chart and our damage chart matches, we will know the problem is in the TL chart...

[Froggy the Great]

The great thing about arguing with numbers is that after a point, they can mean anything.  This is why I'm neither a mathematician or a politician.

 

Keep it up guys, I'm very interested to see where this leads.

[KaiMaster]

Screw numbers, by real life even a regular Rhino or Ogre is #### hard to kill (even when piloted by a moron).  Ace/Ace on both the Rhino and Ogre is unbalancing.

 

It is close, and certainly a lot better than the original stats in the rulebook.

 

A lot of the newer CAVs coming onto the scene via JOR2 will help this some (more super-heavy ways to kill a rhino  hehe).

 

How does the Mastodon fit into this whole debate?  Sure it only has the one gun, but it is a big #### gun...   :D

[General308]

Kali the only way that the ACE Rhino's can be unbalancing is if you are saying the points are still wrong.   I do not belive they are.    I belive if you try playing a ACE Rhino vs two rhino's that the regular rhinos will win at lest half the time on average.

[Leech]

I've played this out three or four times, and the Ace beats the Regulars a lot of the time, around 60% if I remmber right.

 

The effect of the two guns is that, using either numbers, the Ace has the same chance of doing 2 points to the Regular as the Regular has doing 1 to the Ace (assuming TL in both cases). So, doubling that because of the two guns and add another point to both tallies for the missiles (which, in my experience, is about right) then you get the Ace doing 5 points to ONE Regular Rhino while the Reg could theoritically do 3 to the Ace. This would then skew the next round of fire.

 

And we haven't taken defensive fire into account... because the Ace's defensive fire is gonna be much more effective because it only has to beat +4 armour while the Regulars have to beat +8.

 

The ace has an edge, one which is hard to beat with 2 regular Rhinos. It does happen, one game in the three I've played, but that was mainly due to poor rolling and the like. Also, in a game with three CAV's, I tend to use 3 cards (1 red and 2 black) but gang-banging would lessen the Ace's edge more. But still....

 

The Mastodon is a tough unit. It too can have a defensive of +8 and has the same TL electronics. But that one shot, without TL, is doing +10!! With TL it's a massive +13. So you've got a large gun which is hurting the Rhino for two points, maybe three depending on how well the defender rolls, while the defender is hardly getting any hits back.

 

To be honest, I consider the Ace/Ace Mastodon tougher than the A/A Rhino... but both are nightmares.

[Ulyss Brisonne]

One thing I keep thinking is that in victory terms, having that big Ace/Ace Rhino on the table, even if its stomping the regs, is still a bigger risk- because when it does go down, its taking a much bigger investment of your points with it. I know I'd rather run the risk of losing those points in two blocks with the chance of pulling one out of the fire than putting all my eggs in one armoured up basket.

[Soulcatcher]

Don't forget that in a balanced game, the uber-cav doesn't have to survive the battle to win.  It just has to take out more points than it cost.

[General308]

When you go on the odd's the Ace can do one point of damage about 1 out of 3 shots.  It will get two one out of 4 shots.   So lets take the get 2 points of damage that is about one out of 4 well that is fine it takes 4 shots to do so.   That is two turns.  

 

Now the 2Reg will get you 1 point one out of 4 shots.  With Two reg Rhino's that is one point a turn.  So after two turns that is two points of damage.  The same as the Ace after two turns

 

If you go on on the 1 point 34% chance that is one in three.  So it takes 3 shots for that one point which I agree is a higher percentage than the reg as it should be.   The problem is the ACE has only two guns.  Which means going bye the stats you me not get that one point till the 3rd shot which would be the second turn.   Bye the time the ACE gets to fire 3 times the two regs will fire 8 times  giving them again two points of damage for the Rhino's one.  

 

I mean the fact is the raw statistics show yes the ACE is stronger but it should be.   It also shows that because the 2 regs get a faster rate of fire they will do damage just as fast.    The most telling tell in who will win is the damage points the two Regular Rhinos will have twice as many damage tracks as the ACE and that is why The Regulars will win at lest half the time.

 

PS Frank you can't play 4 games and come up with 60 % :p

[Leech]

Gen, I can't remember if I played this three or four times, but I know that the Regulars won once. So it's either 66% or 75%. And I did say 'about 60%' :o)

 

Stuart is a fine one for doing this sort of thing, all the time with everything he can think of. And most of the time he's right.

 

But I keep saying "the dice don't come up average"... an average is a man-made thing. I prefer to go on what happens... experimentation and theory don't always match. Experience and theory don't match either.... experience has an edge.

 

Two Reg/Reg Rhinos have advantages in numbers and the number of shots, but they're hamstrung by the fact that they've got stupidly high TN's. So while Gen's numbers (once you read the post 4 times to get evertyhing straight :o)) look right, they aren't. Experience tells me that TL isn't a guarantee (and those are probabilities for damage with TL) and defensive fire will skew the numbers even more. And a smart opponent will hurt one then the other. That's what I did anyway.

 

Let's consider this another way. I'm going to ignore the defender's D10 score for the moment, because it makes things easier. All my numbers are assuming the defender has max posisble (natural 10).

 

A/A Rhino attacks R/R Rhino:

TL attempt - the Ace needs to get higher than 13 with a +6 modifier so the attacker needs to roll 7 or higher.

Shooting - the Ace needs to beat 18 with his own roll, and he has a +11 modifier so he nees to roll 7 or better.

Defensive fire - the Regular needs to beat 22 with his roll, and he has a +8 modifier so he needs to roll... oh dear he can't hurt the Ace.

 

R/R Rhino attacks a A/A rhino:

TL attempt - the Reg needs to beat 16 with a modifier of +3... erm he can't do this. TL fails.

Shooting - the Reg needs to beat the 22 of the Ace with his roll of +8... oh darn he can't hurt it.

 

I've ignored missiles here because they're so low powered, but the will have an effect (a +6 attack w/ TL) on the outcome. And yes, I have used maximum die rolls, but the situation does occur often enough to make sense and I've included the 4 MoS for damaging into the die rolls.

 

Unless a Reg/Reg Rhino gets TL, it has a VERY small chance of hurting the Ace yet the Ace can hurt the Regular without TL and would get TL most of the time anyway.

 

I've used extremes but it does illustrate what I'm talking about. And remember, in turn 2, the R/R Rhino will be at 2 points while the Ace is pristine... and it spirals from there.

 

Aces kick arse, Regulars die fast and the ones in between vary a little :o) I don't care what numbers say.. the A/A is better.