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Yeah. Sophie's designed as a consumable. So - if enough people swap her out, and if enough people paint (consume) theirs, and if some of the production run is blistered but some not (sometimes they're in a baggie stapled to the blister board), and if either the UL ones or regular ones are gotten in fewer numbers, and if they're never produced again, and if the Kickstarter they were a part of becomes highly notable and significant, and if demand exists in sufficient quantity by people who weren't in on the KS . . . then she'll be worth some scrip.

 

Absolutely none of which (except maybe her never being produced again) is predictable at this time. Now, I'm gonna swap because I don't speculate. I likes what I likes and that's that. I just have the misfortune of liking something (Ral Partha TSR) that's freakin expensive (my current collection, by no means complete, cost me enough so far to get 30 Vampire levels, at least).

 

And I likes me some motorbike Sophie, but I likes me some Nethyrmaul a whole lot more.

 

 

ETA: Although, if I'd known RP TSR prices were going to tank I wouldn't have made myself half broke in the 2006 feeding frenzy. Particularly the week I faced off against an equally rabid rival and our epic battle spiked prices throughout the whole category for weeks afterward. That was like a wizard duel, or Godzilla vs. King Ghidora.

 

But I still love my hard-won and grossly overpriced golems.

 

ETA 2: There is also, of course, the Law of eBay. If you're not famliar with the Law of eBay, it states that any time you really want something it'll be harder to find than a dog that pukes refined gold. Then when you do find it, and pay a ridiculous amount because you've been searching every day for seven straight years in the hopes of ever seeing one . . . immediately after you get it in the mail there'll be dozens, in better condition, for a fraction of what you paid. <_<

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For anyone who was interested, the clockwork dragon is painted and up in the preview gallery, Kaladrax is painted awaiting photography and I'm mostly through Nethyrmaul. I hope to be done with it by m

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I'm not really into selling or trading collectibles, so she's worth little to me anyhow and even if I were, I wouldn't gamble on the small chance that KS sophie's worth will exceed the retail price of what I can obtain by trading her out (nethyrmaul, for example)

 

So, there's the argument by which I reach the conclusion that I should trade her out.

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Ultimately, this Sophie is not likely to command high prices as its likely that even with the ability to swap her for something else there are going to be a whole lot of them out there. The Urban Legion version might be more valuable as there were only 48 specific backers, but there is no way to tell how many people "upgraded" theirs to the UL version. The RCon Sophies that appeared on the website were mostly likely (and I do not know this for a fact), the remains of the production runs from the conventions. There was a cry of outrage when the 5th Anniversary box was released as many felt that it diluted the market value of the RCon sophies at that time and here we see that happening again with the Liche level Sophie box. Ultimately, I buy them to paint them and collect them only in the sense that I like the series. I didn't see anything (and I could have missed it) that says this Sophie is a Kickstarter exclusive so both versions may well be going into the regular catalog along with the other regular production Sophies. The Sophies you won't find in the catalog are the convention exclusive ones, so if you were going to invest then you should purchase the Sophie box in the Liche level.

 

Update - I was going through the front page of the kickstarter and I did find where it says that both versions are exclusive to the kickstarter. So ultimately value will be based on the final production run.

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I didn't see anything (and I could have missed it) that says this Sophie is a Kickstarter exclusive so both versions may well be going into the regular catalog along with the other regular production Sophies.

 

From the Kickstarter page:

 

These include, but are not limited to, various apparel items, a chance to receive each of the new 30 plastic models, a metal Kickstarter-exclusive Sophie model, Design-Your-Own-Miniature packages, not to mention some of the most valuable Crown Jewel one-of-a-kind items from the Reaper archives. (And we even have some incredible stretch goals in mind – we remain ever optimistic!)

 

But I agree with your assessment in general. :)

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Yeah, I'm still trying to figure out what I'm going to do with my pledge funds. I could do 2 Vampire, swap out at least 1 Sophie for Nethyrmaul, get all the other dragons (and 2 Kaly as I mentioned earlier), and all the paint sets. But I am thinking about the cases too. I had planned for 4 because the price is so good, but the extra minis are SO hard to pass up. So maybe I'll swap out both Sophie's and get one case anyway. Decisions, decisions....

 

Think I need to sell some more stuff so I can get everything I want.... How's the market on Dwarven Forge miniatures/scenery these days?

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I wouldn't bother with the cases. There's another KS thread how to DIY for cases.

 

We have a total of 48 backers for the KS-exclusive Sophie model, and 121 backers for the uber-exclusive KS Sophie model. I think *those* are numbers any "limited edition" speculators need to look at. Now compare this with the 16475 Vampire backers. From these numbers, I'd first say that the Nekkid Sophie is the figure you'd want if you're going to do this "limited edition" speculation. 48 KS-exclusive backers is .3% of the total Vampire backers. It's a back-of-a-napkin calculation, but this means you need roughly NINETY-NINE percent of the Vampire backers to trade out Sophie before supply even reaches demand. So, yeah, somebody's gonna want that KS-exclusive Sophie, but you actually want to make some money, you'd be upgrading to the Nekkid Sophie. Except what would you spend it on? Miniatures? You're already saving 50% to 75% on the Options (or a second Vampire set), so there goes any money you would have made with speculation. Better to not pay $100 - $200 now by buying Options than hope for a $10 - $25 profit later.

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Precisely. If you get it, get it because you collect them/like to paint them yourself.

I definitely expect it to go for way over $25, but still pocket change in the big picture. I'd rather have more delicious minis come March :P

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