TheAuldGrump Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 U.S. Customs has been twitchy since 9-11, understandably, but not effectively, so. Add the fact that the USPS dropped surface mail for the more expensive but faster airmail (which radically affected parcel rates) and I can understand why Reaper has problems with shipping. And if we also add an order for 300,000 bottles of paint - which is likely the least of their logistics problems, and you see some problems. I am only getting one of the paint sets (the undead one) so I will admit that it is not a major issue for me, even if I had to wait. So, maybe we can arrange a paint swap? Where folks in the US that are willing to wait can allow folks abroad to get some of theirs? I am willing, as long as I get my paints eventually. The Auld Grump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Goodchild Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Out of curiosity, what's your source for that statistic? Not that I think delaying all shipping is a good idea, but since your rebuttal argument is based on this assertion I'd be interested to know if it has any factual basis. Given that Reaper has said1 that a) they can send out the North American orders with the 100,000 bottles they have, and b) they require a further 200,000 bottles to fulfill the international part of the order, I would suggest that there appear to be twice as many international customers as North American (USA and Canada). Like you, I'm not taking sides but I wish point out this: What your bottle math indicates is that international backers (as a collective group) pledged for more paint than US/Canada backers. It does not mean that there are more international backers than there are US/Canada backers. I was hosting the pledge calculators on my site and I can share this: In the month of August I had 8096 visits to my site (which hosts little more than the calculators so those were the overwhelming driving force). Of those visits, 4959 were from the US. Next up was Canada with 770 visits, Australia with 607, UK with 435, Germany with 211, France with 138 and Belgium with 120. After that it's all double or single digit visits. Now, like the bottle math, that doesn't mean more customers were from the US it means more users of my calculators were from the US but I'd be willing to bet that the proportions of visits to my site is fairly close to the proportions of customers in each country. Cheers Sunny days, keeping the clouds away... +1 for the Sesame Street theme. :) Sunny days, keeping the clouds away... +1 for the Sesame Street theme. :) I take it back; -10 for that. I can't get it out of my head now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kay13 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Just a guess, but I'm suspecting that shortly, after the pledge manager is in that Reaper will have the hard job telling about half the US paint ordering customers that their paint will be arriving at the same time as international, due to the shortage of paint bottles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atramagus Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 *munches popcorn* I never really believed in spectator discussions before now... *crunch* 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pingo Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I'm okay with getting my paint at the same time as international pledgers, if it comes to that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuldGrump Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I'm okay with getting my paint at the same time as international pledgers, if it comes to that. I'm okay with it too. The Auld Grump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atramagus Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I would certainly prefer to get my paint sooner rather than later, but if it becomes too much trouble, I can certainly wait until the rest of the minis as well. Purchasing a few extra paints won't kill me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
recruittons Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 As, apparently, one of the few people who didn't buy any paint, I can totally wait to get my paint! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exwilly Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 *munches popcorn* I never really believed in spectator discussions before now... *crunch* i agree. very interesting and im a U.S. backer. didnt order any paints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwarvenranger Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I already told them to ship all my stuff together in March. But if I can make it to Reapercon next year, I'll wait to get it until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonTheDime Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Until everyone locks in their pledges, I don't think Reaper has the hard numbers one way or the other about exactly how much paint needs to be sent out, and where they would be sent. Since the Paints were addons that could be added to any pledge level, but no Pledge level automatically included paints, the 100,000 number Ed referenced was their best guess at the time he referenced what they expected, and the 300,000 number he referenced was their best guess based on the final backers and pledges at the end of the KS. Until every pledge is locked they don't have a hard number to work with, just their best estimates. I am sure with the pledges that have been locked in since the RPM was released they are starting to get a better sense for the final number, but it still won't be until the end of the 10 day window before those final numbers are in. Anyway, I just wanted to bring this up because there isn't enough information to make a judgement that 100,000 were US and 200,000 international, or any other combination; I don't think Reaper knows yet either. Remember, Ed himself said, AT THE MOMENT the plan is to ship domestic what I have. (First shipment) Then combine first and second shipments for international backers. I am researching shipping figure cases and Sophies for international backers, but I still do not have final data pending the end of the Reaper Pledge Manager period. As he said, he won't have 'final data' until the end of the RPM period, but he is looking into options for international backers. Hopefully things work out such that everyone could be pleasantly surprised at the end results, from all appearances I would say that Reaper will definitely do their best to bring that about. Now, I opted to trade out my Sophies for more Bones and I didn't add Paints to my pledge, so even though I chose the "Combine in one shipment" option in the RPM, it doesn't matter as I'm waiting until March either way. However, if I did order Paints and/or kept one of my Sophies, I would have still combined into one shipment and waited because I don't need them now, and I would rather make it easier on Reaper by making my pledge a single shipment for them. Plus, if it would increase the chance for those who would like the earlier shipment to have it, that would be another bonus. And from my review of the forum here and the comments on KS (both the general and in update #69 and #70), it sounds like there are a fair number that have opted to do the same; so hopefully when the final numbers do come in, perhaps there will be a better chance for early shipments to go to international backers. Who knows? Until the final numbers are in, I don't think anyone does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seamus Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Like you, I'm not taking sides but I wish point out this: What your bottle math indicates is that international backers (as a collective group) pledged for more paint than US/Canada backers. It does not mean that there are more international backers than there are US/Canada backers. But since there is no way for Reaper to know what people have used their pledge money for until the pledge managers are all filled out, they must be basing this one something. As they can't know who is pledging for what in addition to their vampire pledge, the obvious way to estimate is based on pure numbers of people in each region. Edit: You could alternatively infer that international customers pledged more, but not necessarily were more numerous. But I'm using the assumption (due to having no other information) that each regions average pledge per customer was roughly similar. (On a sidenote, thanks for the figures, I'm not sure how much we can infer from them, but more data can't hurt) :) Until everyone locks in their pledges, I don't think Reaper has the hard numbers one way or the other about exactly how much paint needs to be sent out, and where they would be sent. Since the Paints were addons that could be added to any pledge level, but no Pledge level automatically included paints, the 100,000 number Ed referenced was their best guess at the time he referenced what they expected, and the 300,000 number he referenced was their best guess based on the final backers and pledges at the end of the KS. Until every pledge is locked they don't have a hard number to work with, just their best estimates. Exactly, I absolutely agree. However I do think that their best guess is based on more information than we have been made privy to. So by looking at the results they have gotten, we can infer something of what the information was that they based their guess on. But we are agreed that with the information we have it's impossible to know. Which is why I asked what was the source of this statement: most of their customers ... are in the US. It just seems like a massive assumption to make with no factual basis to back it up. Just a guess, but I'm suspecting that shortly, after the pledge manager is in that Reaper will have the hard job telling about half the US paint ordering customers that their paint will be arriving at the same time as international, due to the shortage of paint bottles. That is a possibility, especially if Anshar's figures are representative of the KS audience as a whole. For the sake of everyone involved I hope it doesn't happen though. Edit: For what it's worth, I haven't locked in my pledge yet. I'm debating with myself whether I should get alternate paints when Sedition Wars arrives, and hence not need more paints in March, or should I wait until all this arrives before painting anything. I do have a number of quite old GW paints, but I don't know how many of them are still good, so at this price I was planning on replacing them all with Reaper. Might just have to test how good are 10 - 15 year old bottles of paint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisler Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I'm sorry, even without evidence I think its very safe to say that the majority or the 17000+ are in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seamus Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I'm sorry, even without evidence I think its very safe to say that the majority or the 17000+ are in the US. I'm sorry, but I really don't see what you're basing that on. I had written more here, then I read the first line of your sig, so I'm just going to leave it at that :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Klingon Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Another thing to consider on the paint sets. 300,000 bottles / 12 bottles per set is 25,000 sets. Some poor sucker eager employee is going to have to assemble those 25,000 sets and some other sharp eyed person will have to double check them before they get tossed into boxes for shipment. I would prefer that Reaper take their time and get it right rather than rushing and have a high percent of oops. I did check the 'Ship in one box' box. Figured it would be easier to double check what I received vs what I ordered knowing it should all be in this box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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