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Bones Kickstarter #2 Discussion


ladystorm
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I will be happy if I am wrong but I think people are way off on the end amount predictions. I dont see it going over $3 million. Everyone uses how people buying patters were in past kickstarters but the thing that is different about this kickstarter is that it is a sequel. Had I got on the first one and had just received my shipment I would not be getting on aboard another. Because the first one proved reliable (I assume, I havent heard complaints) they got the huge opening day bump which I think is not typical for a kickstarter and a the bump is made up of a lot of people that would normally have been the end bump.

 

AGAIN, I will be very happy if I am completely wrong and it ends at $6 million.

Well, there is no way of knowing for sure, but for second kickstarters following a very successful first project, the trend is usually a big start, a middle slump and a big finish. Hopefully Bones II will follow the same trend. Check out a couple other projects that were followups to popular first campaigns. Check the daily data and it is easy to see what I mean:

 

Stonehaven: http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/2087444096/gnomish-adventurers-box-set/#chart-daily

 

Zombicide: http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/coolminiornot/zombicide-season-2/#chart-daily

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Possibly. I've wondered if the front-loading will also take from the end, too. But the menu on this is different, with different organization and pricing. That could be the wild card that carries it over the top.

 

I do think there will be less "pokemon" buyers like me this time, people who buy one of everything in order to have them all.

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Hey! I just made a STAR!

 

It appeared in my draw of the "Sophie hanging for dear life on a Tarrasque Bellydancer munching a waffle riding a Kaladrax inside a gazebo".

 

eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Thanks everybody!

(now 4 more pages to catch on this topic)

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I will be happy if I am wrong but I think people are way off on the end amount predictions. I dont see it going over $3 million.

AGAIN, I will be very happy if I am completely wrong and it ends at $6 million.

I dunno - they're likely to hit 2 million some time today or tomorrow - and will have over a week to hit/exceed $3 million at that point.

 

When you add in the fact that folks who have something starred usually won't pledge until the last couple of days, and thst plenty of folks have mentioned that they're holding off on making final pledge adjustments....

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It seems like they are doing $50,000-$60,000 per day and from past repeat kickstarters that have big first day bumps, the end bump is roughly half the first day bump. That would be an estimate of another $500,000 climb with a $500,000 end bump. So it would be just under $3 million.

 

But we will see soon enough.

Edited by Rich711
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I really wouldn't worry about that. Worst case scenario is you look the day before it closes, see it's not even close, and reduce your pledge accordingly.

 

That would be highly unlikely though. Last time, and most Kickstarters I've contributed to follow this pattern, the pledges absolutely exploded on the last couple of days. We'll at least match the KS 1 total or I'll dress up like Buglips and take a photo for the forums to chortle over.

 

It's a little too early to get an exact estimate but I'm thinking somewhere between $7.450129 million and $7.450130 million total.

 

I Hope you are right, but that will crack the Reaper´s prediction!

Creator Reaper Miniatures 6 minutes ago

@Ryan Vollmar - we've laid out contingency plans for a very weak finish that barely breaks $2Mil, and we've laid out a plan for pie-in-the-sky of up to $6Mil.

I personally do not predict anymore - KS1 I predicted on day 1 would end at $750k. HA! Day one of this KS I predicted a Day 1 total of $750k. HA!

All I can do is try to guide, and make a flexible plan that lets us please as many backers as possible 0 contingency for what if EXpansions 2&3 don;t "fill out" for example, and contingency for if they do and we need more...

 

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There were a lot of people who missed KS1 who wanted in on a second, and not everybody even knows about this yet. Despite several heads-up, everybody in my game group was surprised to learn it had already started - and I was nagging them a lot about it to make sure they didn't miss it.

 

The clear solution is to nag more, nag better. Forehead tattoos might do.

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It seems like they are doing $50,000-$60,000 per day and from past repeat kickstarters that have big first day bumps, the end bump is roughly half the first day bump. That would be an estimate of another $500,000 climb with a $500,000 end bump. So it would be just under $3 million.

 

But we will see soon enough.

 

Depends on the 48h-bump. Even projects that have traditionally started very strong usually end with a bump just as large at the end (although my experience comes from watching video game KSs). Mighty No9, Project Eternity, Numenera Torment, all had an initial buy-in of ~700k, and then a final bump of ~700k again.

 

There are a lot of bandwagoners that will join, but the media attention needs to sweep into action again. If Bones2 gets some major media attention 5-3 days from the end, it should be another ~1M

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It seems like they are doing $50,000-$60,000 per day and from past repeat kickstarters that have big first day bumps, the end bump is roughly half the first day bump. That would be an estimate of another $500,000 climb with a $500,000 end bump. So it would be just under $3 million.

 

But we will see soon enough.

 

Depends on the 48h-bump. Even projects that have traditionally started very strong usually end with a bump just as large at the end (although my experience comes from watching video game KSs). Mighty No9, Project Eternity, Numenera Torment, all had an initial buy-in of ~700k, and then a final bump of ~700k again.

 

There are a lot of bandwagoners that will join, but the media attention needs to sweep into action again. If Bones2 gets some major media attention 5-3 days from the end, it should be another ~1M

We've had some already - we are to date the only company to have 2 Kickstarter Projects both break $1,000,000. Soon, it looks like we will be the only one to have 2 $2 million projects.

 

 

Also - Note my SEXY NEW AVATAR by Naponatom! BOW BEFORE IT! BOW!!!

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See the real number we have yet to reach that will push this forward is the number of Backers. Reaper hit 17K last time and people missed the bus. Let's say that totals out to 20K.

 

That's 7K more Backers to drive the goals as well as the existing already pledged but must up their pledge for the future released stretch goals (like myself).

 

I can very easily see those additional backers driving this quite high. Will it be $7 million? I doubt we'll stop before we break the last Kickstarter's total.

 

EDIT: Also I think the average buy-in is higher this time. Prolly +$100 over last time.

 

 

Does that Bryanzilla come with a Bow?

Edited by Thrym
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