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Bones Kickstarter #2 Discussion


ladystorm
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Ive sat here and thought about just how high this KS could earn. I honesly dont think its going to match KS 1. It has nothing to do with reaper or the models....I just simply think people just dont have as much money to spare this time around...I would love to see this explode to the 7 mil range but realistically 2.5 to 3 is all I see. I could be wrong and hopefully I am..I really dont think its going to explode in the last day like the last one did or atleast not as much.

 

I've got some limited experience in predicting Kickstarters; I was within $10,000 of the final amount for the Shadowrun Returns one. And I'd be absolutely amazed if this one doesn't get to $6 million in the last couple of days.

Thats going to be a tough climb I think but it would be awesome if we made it that far. I wonder if Reaper would really truly ever be prepared for it going that high. Is a year realistic?

Yup. They've stated several times that they've both planned that far ahead, and that shipping times have been heavily padded. What caused issues last time wasn't the production time, but the shipping times.

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Ive sat here and thought about just how high this KS could earn. I honesly dont think its going to match KS 1. It has nothing to do with reaper or the models....I just simply think people just dont have as much money to spare this time around...I would love to see this explode to the 7 mil range but realistically 2.5 to 3 is all I see. I could be wrong and hopefully I am..I really dont think its going to explode in the last day like the last one did or atleast not as much.

I've got some limited experience in predicting Kickstarters; I was within $10,000 of the final amount for the Shadowrun Returns one. And I'd be absolutely amazed if this one doesn't get to $6 million in the last couple of days.

 

The other point is this: you're looking at a Kickstarter that has pulled in more money per day than the first, and somehow that's convinced you it's going to flop on the last couple of days?

 

 

I like your prediction more than my own. I've been thinking some place between 3.5 and 4 million. I eagerly look forward to your triumphant gloating. ::):

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That's half the reason I make predictions. The other reason is so people can feel better about a low-funding Kickstarter by laughing at me and my ridiculous predictions.

 

(But seriously. Over 6 million. I bet a picture of me in a frilly dress on it.)

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Like Laoke, I am expecting a much higher total than the first Kickstarter. This Kickstarter, even leaving aside the initial surge, has done better than the last one when you compare day-to-day memberships and pledges.

 

This Kickstarter has reached $1.944 million in pledges (so far) with nine days to go. The first Bones Kickstarter didn't reach that total until just over two days before the end.

 

Apart from the initial surge, the shape of the two Kicktraq graphs is fairly similar. Nine days before the end the first Kickstarter was cruising upward at a similar slow but steady rate as the current one.

 

I expect there to be an acceleration of pledges in the next week, and a total considerably higher than the first Kickstarter.

 

So maybe I eat my words later. ::): But that's what I expect.

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(But seriously. Over 6 million. I bet a picture of me in a frilly dress on it.)

 

Not sure if you are making a prediction or pulling the number out of your bum. That would require 30,000 backers averaging $200 a pledge. I just don't see that being reached. Seeing as Bones KS shows ~17k backers and then take into account those of us who came along after that number I doubt it makes 30k backers.

 

So...besides the frilly dress I want to up the bet to pretty makeup and high heels.

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Oooh! Let's make predictions. Whoever wins- we need a prize. Any thoughts? Like a painted mini or something like that?

I'll vote on 3.795 mil. I want to be proven wrong! Take my money!

I think someone already tried to do that earlier in the thread (like WAY earlier) and got shot down by LadyStorm.

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I don't expect this Kickstarter to surge as dramatically as the first one did. I'm generalising from my own experience a lot here, but I think last time there were a lot of people in a similar boat to me who only found out about the scale of the deal very late (either from the Paizo update like myself or elsewhere), were amazed by the great deal and jumped in. This is more of a known quantity though, so I'd expect more of the backing to be front-loaded than last time.

 

From Kicktraq it looks like the last 8 days of the first project brought in just over $2.5m. I'd be surprised if we managed to exceed that by very much, so my prediction is something between $4.5m - $5m. That said I think the structure of this one is liable to bring up the average $/backer, so there's the possibility for closer to $6m but I'm hoping for rather than expecting it. Really though, anything over $4m will be an awesome follow up on the first. (And frankly I think even matching the first would still count as a massive success, especially given Reaper have tinkered with the margins and hopefully given themselves a better return this time.)

Edited by Berik
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(But seriously. Over 6 million. I bet a picture of me in a frilly dress on it.)

 

Not sure if you are making a prediction or pulling the number out of your bum. That would require 30,000 backers averaging $200 a pledge. I just don't see that being reached. Seeing as Bones KS shows ~17k backers and then take into account those of us who came along after that number I doubt it makes 30k backers.

 

So...besides the frilly dress I want to up the bet to pretty makeup and high heels.

I'll certainly do makeup and heels, but I draw the line at "pretty" given that involves circumstances entirely beyond my control.

 

And $200 per backer average seems about right - consider, that's the base set + 2 expansions. 30,000 backers is less than double what we saw last time - yes, we may lose some ROW backers to increased shipping but not as many as perhaps you'd think. My prediction is largely pulled out of my bottom but I stand by it.

 

Till after the Kickstarter ends and I claim it was just a ploy to encourage people and to drive the total higher >.>

 

Darsc - I made a precise prediction a couple of days back. That's the Kickstarter total, no jiggery pokery with the Pledge Manager.

Edited by Laoke
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