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Kickstarter Project Delivery Difficulty Classes and Modifiers.

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I had an idle thought recently:  could we come up with a DC roll and modifiers to predict the likelihood of a Kickstarter project delivering during a given month starting on the expected month?

The modifiers would be based on various aspects of the company and the Kickstarter project like size of the company, # of backers, and what is shown in the project proposal.

The Difficulty Class would be based on the subjective complexity of the project:

  • Easy is 10
  • Medium is 15
  • Hard is 20

Then you’d add modifiers to your roll against the DC.  Miss the roll on a given month, you get to roll again the next month.

And, you can still roll a 1 even if your total of modifiers seems to be greater than the DC.

Here are some modifiers that I threw together somewhat randomly.   ::):

Company Modifiers

  • New company: -5
  • Company been around > 2 years: +2
  • History of late projects: -5 

Size of group working on fulfillment

  • 1:  -5
  • 10-20: +2
  • 21-50: + 5
  • 51+: + 10

First Kickstarter: -5
Every Kickstarter after first: +2 
Each currently unfulfilled Kickstarter: -3
Manufacturing overseas: -5

Frequent updates during campaign: +1
Professional video:  +2
Concept art only: -1
Masters shown for 25-50% of minis: +2
Masters shown for > 50% of minis: +5
Production complete: +10

# of Backers:

  • 200-500: -2
  • Each 500 above 500: -2

Frequency of updates after funding concludes:

  • < 1 every 6 months: -10
  • < 1 every 3 months: -5
  • < 1 a month: -2
  • >1 every week: +2

Every month after the first month: +1  (limited to +5 total)

 

 

Anyway, just some idle thoughts that came to me while away from home.   ::):

 

Ron

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Dang, Ron. Either you're just fraggin' brilliant, or you just DON'T have enough to occupy your mind.

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Large group working on a project should be a penalty rather than a bonus. One-man bands have a better on-time record, IME. Coordination is hard.

 

And "concept art only" should be a much greater penalty.

 

It seems like there should be a modifier for each month late, but I'm not sure whether it should be positive or negative.  <_<

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And "concept art only" should be a much greater penalty.

 

 

Yes. Oathsworn always delivers on time or early, because he starts his KSs with his sculpts all done or mostly done. Plus, the one/two man shop applies to them & Stonehaven.

 

Wait, what am I saying? :blink:

 

 

... nerd

Yeah, that! :lol:

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There needs to be a penalty to 3D renders only.  Above and beyond just the concept art.  There is almost inevitably a problem with one of the coolest models rendered when it comes to mold making and casting, which leads to a resculpt, and loss of coolness.

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major penalties for any Licenced product where the licence owner has to approve art/minis/etc

 

(eg Aliens Vs Predator from Prodos is suffering despite Prodos and Fox working well together, just because it takes time for things to be approved, and if they're not even more time to re-do)

 

major penalties if more than two groups are involved (eg project creator, licence owner, sculpting house) more buck passing, more waiting for approval, more A&B approve, C says change things, now A&C approve but B says no etc

 

(eg Robotech with Palladium, Harmony Gold and Ninja Division)

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Dang, Ron. Either you're just fraggin' brilliant, or you just DON'T have enough to occupy your mind.

 

These are not mutually exclusive conditions.

 

I am eager to see whether these ratings start showing up in KS threads here. 

 

Of course, to do it right, you'd have to formally gather data on fulfillment records from a few hundred campaigns and compile statistics on how much these things matter to properly weight everything. Actually, most of that is available publicly...

 

:devil:

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Dang, Ron. Either you're just fraggin' brilliant, or you just DON'T have enough to occupy your mind.

 

Er, thanks.   I think.  :;):  Not sure about the brilliant part.  Maybe on every other alternate Tuesday.  And I only had time to think about it because I was travelling to/from Urbana for a university recruiting trip.

 

Even though the idea isn't meant to be serious, I'll make some updates over the weekend.   ::):

 

Ron

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