Reaperbryan Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Good news. I hope customs goes smoothly. OK Bryan, if 6 is the quickest and 28 the longest, what do you typically see on average? Is it near the middle of those extremes or closer to one end or the other? i always run 3 projections. Soonest, latest, and average. The average delivery time from Customs to us is ~14 calendar days. So my proabable delivery calendar says Jan 26th. But again, that is 100% speculation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cranky Dog Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Good news. I hope customs goes smoothly. OK Bryan, if 6 is the quickest and 28 the longest, what do you typically see on average? Is it near the middle of those extremes or closer to one end or the other? i always run 3 projections. Soonest, latest, and average. The average delivery time from Customs to us is ~14 calendar days. So my proabable delivery calendar says Jan 26th. But again, that is 100% speculation. And by then we have to take into account shipping times from Reaper to our doorsteps. It's 7-10 business days for typical Canadian deliveries, more for those outside of North America. I wonder how frustrating it must be to be a pledger from Hong Kong where you see the ship full of Bones leave port, and then have to wait weeks for it to come back overseas again. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristof65 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Good news. I hope customs goes smoothly. OK Bryan, if 6 is the quickest and 28 the longest, what do you typically see on average? Is it near the middle of those extremes or closer to one end or the other? i always run 3 projections. Soonest, latest, and average. The average delivery time from Customs to us is ~14 calendar days. So my proabable delivery calendar says Jan 26th. But again, that is 100% speculation. The quicker you want it, the more likely US Customs is to take longer, in my experience. The company I contract to had to stop offering Sat Overnight delivery in to the US from the factory in Calgary, thanks to customs, despite the fact that UPS offers it (and charges an arm and a leg for it). About 7/8ths of the packages that got sent from Calgary for Saturday overnight delivery got held up in customs, some for as long as a week, but most would get delivered on Tuesday or Wednesday, rather than the Saturday you paid for. It's pretty sad when you can send a package out on Friday for Sat delivery, then find out on Monday that it's still stuck in customs, so you send a second package for overnight Tuesday, and that package still gets there before the one you paid three times as much to send. And then to add insult to injury, UPS won't refund any of your money because the delay wasn't there fault. So I would say lets keep our fingers crossed that the containers don't arrive in Dallas customs on a Friday, Saturday or Sunday, because I think the customs people who work those days hide things... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CashWiley Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 i always run 3 projections.Half Life 3 confirmed. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncas Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 i always run 3 projections.Half Life 3 confirmed. Bones KS III confirmed. 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naponatom Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Good news. I hope customs goes smoothly. OK Bryan, if 6 is the quickest and 28 the longest, what do you typically see on average? Is it near the middle of those extremes or closer to one end or the other? i always run 3 projections. Soonest, latest, and average. The average delivery time from Customs to us is ~14 calendar days. So my proabable delivery calendar says Jan 26th. But again, that is 100% speculation. And by then we have to take into account shipping times from Reaper to our doorsteps. It's 7-10 business days for typical Canadian deliveries, more for those outside of North America. I wonder how frustrating it must be to be a pledger from Hong Kong where you see the ship full of Bones leave port, and then have to wait weeks for it to come back overseas again. Try 3 months... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doug Sundseth Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Good news. I hope customs goes smoothly. OK Bryan, if 6 is the quickest and 28 the longest, what do you typically see on average? Is it near the middle of those extremes or closer to one end or the other? i always run 3 projections. Soonest, latest, and average. The average delivery time from Customs to us is ~14 calendar days. So my proabable delivery calendar says Jan 26th. But again, that is 100% speculation. I think you've said before something that I took to mean the time to clear customs wasn't a Gaussian distribution, though. That is, that the required time was not particularly more likely to fall into the center of the range than anywhere else. So, roll a d20. Did you get a 20? Hooray, customs is done! No? Try again tomorrow. But we'll think about letting you use a d19. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reaperbryan Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 i always run 3 projections.Half Life 3 confirmed. Bones KS III confirmed. I love you guys! Too funny. I just finished answering a Bones III comment in the KS Comments, to come here and see this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reaperbryan Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Good news. I hope customs goes smoothly. OK Bryan, if 6 is the quickest and 28 the longest, what do you typically see on average? Is it near the middle of those extremes or closer to one end or the other? i always run 3 projections. Soonest, latest, and average. The average delivery time from Customs to us is ~14 calendar days. So my proabable delivery calendar says Jan 26th. But again, that is 100% speculation. I think you've said before something that I took to mean the time to clear customs wasn't a Gaussian distribution, though. That is, that the required time was not particularly more likely to fall into the center of the range than anywhere else. So, roll a d20. Did you get a 20? Hooray, customs is done! No? Try again tomorrow. But we'll think about letting you use a d19. Yeah, but 6 of of the previous 8 containers cleared in 13,14 or 15 days, so I am using 14 for my "high probability" scenario in meetings, with 8 and 25 as my low probability events. Thus we are planning to be ready as soon as the 20th, with an expected highest probability the week of Jan 26, and a crisis management mode of Feb 2. the dates I give are "be ready to receive product" in a logistical planning meaning, not "be ready to begin shipping by this date" meaning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncas Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Imagine the possibilities! Half Life 3 licensed minis in Bones KS III! ;) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doug Sundseth Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Good news. I hope customs goes smoothly. OK Bryan, if 6 is the quickest and 28 the longest, what do you typically see on average? Is it near the middle of those extremes or closer to one end or the other? i always run 3 projections. Soonest, latest, and average. The average delivery time from Customs to us is ~14 calendar days. So my proabable delivery calendar says Jan 26th. But again, that is 100% speculation. I think you've said before something that I took to mean the time to clear customs wasn't a Gaussian distribution, though. That is, that the required time was not particularly more likely to fall into the center of the range than anywhere else. So, roll a d20. Did you get a 20? Hooray, customs is done! No? Try again tomorrow. But we'll think about letting you use a d19. Yeah, but 6 of of the previous 8 containers cleared in 13,14 or 15 days, so I am using 14 for my "high probability" scenario in meetings, with 8 and 25 as my low probability events. Thus we are planning to be ready as soon as the 20th, with an expected highest probability the week of Jan 26, and a crisis management mode of Feb 2. the dates I give are "be ready to receive product" in a logistical planning meaning, not "be ready to begin shipping by this date" meaning. Good to know. As you build a larger sample size, perhaps the observed distribution will start to look more like a bell curve. Which just means that if a shipment drifts out toward the back tail of the distribution, the delay will be even more frustrating. Probability and perception are fun. For a sufficiently twisted definition of "fun". 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reaperbryan Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Good to know. As you build a larger sample size, perhaps the observed distribution will start to look more like a bell curve. Which just means that if a shipment drifts out toward the back tail of the distribution, the delay will be even more frustrating. Probability and perception are fun. For a sufficiently twisted definition of "fun". I spend an inordinate amount of time when I'm not writing or debugging code* bring over my records of all shipments plotting probability curves and panicking on the floor when they put boxes in my Container Space. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenbow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 How is this for excitement??? (1st post btw). I painted five mini's recently, and they were the first I have painted in about three years. Man do I need more practice, so what better way to get ready for Bones II arrival than a brand new Master Series Paint Set 7--- All 216 colors in the MSP line in one shipment. It arrived last night!! That is my Bones excitement! 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baphomet69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Bones 18.8 miles from me, I can almost smell them! Sssooooo clooooosssseee... 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aard_Rinn Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 That is... a lot of paint. Thank god it comes in a carrier! I hope it arrives in good condition! We've had a brutal cold snap here the last few weeks... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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