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If you live in those areas, or know anybody who lives in those areas in the Watch or Warning, prepare for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. 

Again...

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City,
Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of Intracoastal City
to High Island, Texas.

205153_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

Discussion:

 

000
WTNT43 KNHC 192047
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A pair of ASCAT passes between 15 and 16Z showed that the
disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico has an area of tropical-storm-
force winds within a large area of deep convection 100 to 150 n mi
northeast of a broad low center. The ASCAT data and visible
satellite imagery show that the center is not well defined, and in
fact multiple low-level swirls are evident in the latest imagery. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the system and will provide more data on its wind
structure.

The NWS now has the option to issue advisories, watches, and
warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but
which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane
conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy
this was not possible.  These systems are known as Potential
Tropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered from the
same list as depressions. Because of the threat to the central
Gulf coast, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Three and the appropriate watches/warnings have been issued.
Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is
generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72
hours.

The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data. The
initial pressure is set to 1002 mb based on extrapolated data from
the aircraft. Only modest strengthening is expected given the
moderate to strong southwesterly shear of around 30 kt expected to
persist over the system during the next couple of days. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity consensus aid.

Given the broad nature of the low, the initial motion estimate is a
rather uncertain 350/08. During the first 12 to 24 hours the system
will move northward to north-northwestward due to the a weakness in
the subtropical ridge over the northern Gulf and then the system
should slow and turn more northwestward as it interacts with an
upper-level low currently situated off the Texas coast.  The details
of this interaction will have significant implications on the track
of the system, and there remains a fair amount of model spread.  The
HWRF is on the right side of the guidance envelope, with a track
toward southeastern Louisiana while the UKMET and ECMWF show a
solution toward southwest Louisiana or extreme eastern Texas. For
now, the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope
and a little left of the TCVA consensus aid. Given the disorganized
nature of the circulation and the fact that the wind and rain
hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged to not focus on the details of the track forecast.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 24.7N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  20/0600Z 26.0N  89.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 27.2N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  21/0600Z 27.9N  91.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 28.7N  92.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 32.0N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  23/1800Z 35.5N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/205153.shtml?cone#contents

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9 hours ago, Dilvish the Deliverer said:

Enjoy!

 

Hope traffic isn't horrible.

It actually wasn't too bad today. I think I might have accidentally figured out the best way to get down here.

 

 

 

.....and a thunderstorm just knocked out the power.

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4 hours ago, Zink said:

Pezler, where is the new store? The wife and mother-in-law like various european foods and snacks and might be interested in this place. Every time we're in Regina with hit the Ukranian Coop and Mcsmak store to stock up on various eastern european candies and other things that you don't find in a normal grocery store. Any store that's actually willing to talk to customers and interested in their wants is worth supporting too.

Ohhhh, the Ukrainian Co-op is awesome. I happened to get these from Save-On-Foods, which is a large chain that's in western Canada. There's one in Regina, in the South End.

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@DakkauserKaptinBadrukk Thanks for the heads up!  Hope everyone in the cone of probability battens down their hatches!

I could actually use some rain though- I'm getting tired of having to water the grass seed I planted last week.  It keeps on going around my location.  <_<

Edited by Seer of the Pitt
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On 6/16/2017 at 5:59 PM, Pingo said:

 

I was assuming he meant Advanced Reader's Copy, a pre-publication but nearly camera-ready book manuscript with a rudimentary cover sent early to reviewers so they can have it read and reviewed by the publication date.

 

 

 

 

EDIT:  Which I see he already answered six hours ago.  Not much of a :ph34r:

 

Hamster, are you a reviewer?

Did I reply to this? Can't remember...

 

No. I mean, I "review" books, but not not so that anyone pays any attention. I got this one because I'm friends with the author. Who is excellent, and her 3rd book is better than book 2, which was better than book 1, and you should totally look her up: J.L. Gribble and the Steel Empire series and then go read it... and tell your library to get it... and tell your friends about it... 

 

 

Managed to avoid getting rained on, mostly. And primarily because I was next to a cafe when the downpour started. So I ran in. 

Image may contain: coffee cup and food

And since it would be rude to take shelter without getting something... 

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I am currently worried about my budget and storage space; Harbour Freight just announce that they are opening a store in Rocky Mount. I could alway go to the one in Raleigh when I am up that way for work, but it being more than a quarter of the way around the city from any of the stores my team works in has so far kept me away (though it is just down US 1 from the store we service in Wake Forest...).

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21 hours ago, Zink said:

The poor man at arms was dug out of the garden after over 20 years.

 

 Oh, I can beat that - lol...

 

After thirty-five years, buried in the dirt, my old man turned up Bert and Oscar the Grouch Weeble-Wobbles from when I was three...  ::D:

 

 

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36 minutes ago, FaekiasDracon said:

I am currently worried about my budget and storage space; Harbour Freight just announce that they are opening a store in Rocky Mount. I could alway go to the one in Raleigh when I am up that way for work, but it being more than a quarter of the way around the city from any of the stores my team works in has so far kept me away (though it is just down US 1 from the store we service in Wake Forest...).

 

 Simple solution: The minute you walk into the store, immediately head to the aisle where they keep all their storage containers and buy as many storage items as you can reasonably come up with a use for...

You've now spent all your money on new storage, and will have to be content to just sit around filling it up with your current stuff rather than buying new stuff to fill it.

 

 

EDIT:

 

    This is now the part of the day wherein Jack does basic carpentry while baking chicken.

 

Edited by Mad Jack
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1 hour ago, David Brawley said:

Did I reply to this? Can't remember...

 

No. I mean, I "review" books, but not not so that anyone pays any attention. I got this one because I'm friends with the author. Who is excellent, and her 3rd book is better than book 2, which was better than book 1, and you should totally look her up: J.L. Gribble and the Steel Empire series and then go read it... and tell your library to get it... and tell your friends about it... 

 

 

Managed to avoid getting rained on, mostly. And primarily because I was next to a cafe when the downpour started. So I ran in. 

Image may contain: coffee cup and food

And since it would be rude to take shelter without getting something... 

 

I love that so many of your photos are books + food. It's my favorite combination of things so I always smile when I see people enjoy it. ^_^ 

 

One of my favorite memories when I was 19 or so was a rare day when I had a day off AND all of the roommates were gone. I took a blanket and all of the pillows to our little balcony, and created a little nest. The weather was about the high 60s with a nice wind.... I bought a mess of $1 tacos, curled up with my book, and went on reading adventures. :lol: 

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So after all my waiting was done I tried to do some real work. Succeeded in doing what I wanted and had a small adventure.

 

While unloading broken posts from my pickup I heard loud noises coming from nearby. I immediately recognized them as the sounds of my wife's deadly nemesis - the raccoon. This is odd as they are not normally active in the middle of the afternoon. A quick scan of the area revealed a small mother raccoon running up and down the fenceline a short distance away. Arming myself with a trusty club, ie fence post, I carefully went to investigate. Mama raccoon spotted me and ran off but the noises continued.

 

Then without warning her spawn sprang out of the tall grass. Ok, with plenty of warning and not really springing a baby raccoon popped up and grabbed the lowest wire of the fence about 6 feet in front of me. I got ready to do battle but the dirty creature hit me with his special attack. He stared at at me so scared and cute with his head between his paws. Think Puss in Boots in Shrek except 1000 times cuter. Looked me up and down making the chirping sounds they do. I checked him out and realised he was tangled in some net wrap that was hooked to the barbs on the fence. I failed my will save and instead of finishing the varmint like I'd planned I went to the house for scissors.

 

I quickly returned with scissors and heavy leather gloves. Heroically wrestling him to the ground (he must weigh almost 4 pounds) I started to free him from the entanglement. I quickly detached him from the fence causing him to go into a berzerk rage. Many foul threats were uttered as he tried to bite and claw his way loose from my grip. Seriously raccoons can get incredibly nasty when cornered even tiny ones. Keeping him pinned to the ground and while kneeling I sought to remove all of the entangling netwrap. Suddenly I hear a soft scrabbling noise. Looking up horrified I see that mama raccoon has returned.

 

She's literally arms length in front of my face and charging straight at me. I don't scare easily but 25 pounds of screaming furball flying at my face made me jump. Letting out my herioc battle cry, or maybe a strangled girly squeak I tried to gain my feet without letting baby go. Mama hit me in the left arm and chest leaving me badly wounded and quickly retreated. She actually gave me a tiny little scratch on the arm and I'm glad the teeth didn't get close. I've got a worse one on my head wear I leaned into the corner of the cupboard yesterday.

 

Having vanquished my foe I moved him to my jail cell, read live trap. I returned to my village victorious with my valiant enemy on display to the cheers of all the villagers. Meaning I brought him to town and showed him off to the kids and some of their friends.

 

Not sure what I'm going to do with him yet. Younger son wants to try and keep him as a pet. Wife has a deep hatred of raccoons because for years they've tormented her garden and flowers on the farm. I've got love/hate feelings about them. They are incredibly smart, kind of cool and make fun pets if it works out. Gotta respect a 25 pound mama that attacks a 220 pound man head on to save her baby. On the other hand they are incredibly smart, destructive and annoying. I love animals and wildlife but beavers, raccoons and elk have earned spots on my poop list.

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2 hours ago, Mad Jack said:

 

 Simple solution: The minute you walk into the store, immediately head to the aisle where they keep all their storage containers and buy as many storage items as you can reasonably come up with a use for...

You've now spent all your money on new storage, and will have to be content to just sit around filling it up with your current stuff rather than buying new stuff to fill it.

 

 

EDIT:

 

    This is now the part of the day wherein Jack does basic carpentry while baking chicken.

 

The problem with that "solution" is that I do not actually have the room for the storage containers, and do actually need some more tools than what I currently have. 

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