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Clear Bones- split from Bones You'd Like to See


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29 minutes ago, Reaperbryan said:

My data shows that Opaque weapons are, after controlling for their inclusion in the Core Set, slightly more popular than the transparent alternatives. True clear was favored over the tinted variants, with RGBP in the proper order of popularity, although within that order in some cases less than 5 units separate them, so statistically RGB were functional equivalent, and P was weak.

I'm curious the percentage of people who bought N of each vs. the people who bought say 2 clear and 5 opaque.

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So related to clear Bones being hard to photograph, I took some pictures using an LED flashlight, with the mini sitting on the lens of the flashlight . Not too bad, and kinda cool looking. I used my c

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On 6/21/2017 at 11:03 PM, Bane Of Humanity said:

I don't see it making much of a difference. Doesn't matter if its bones, metal or clear.  You cannot see detail at all unless its painted. I just think making them all clear would allow for making invisibles OR doing spell effects with inks etc.  Instead of having a special line for them.   

There is considerable difference in discerning detail between a clear miniature and an opaque one.

 

Also significant is that my players seem to feel that the grey plastic used for Chronoscope miniatures is a whole lot better at showing detail - to the point where some were pretty sure that the grey plastic really is more detailed.

 

Put me down as 3 - with a couple of additions.... I would like to see a roughly useful invisible figure for each general class, in both genders. It does not need to be a specific female rogue sneaking around invisible, but it would be nice to have a generic invisible female rogue. Maybe in general body shapes too - a human can pass as an elf, but would have a hard time passing as a dwarf, whow would, in turn, have difficulty disguising herself as an invisible halfling....

 

Also, as mentioned, the grey does a very nice job of making detail more apparent.

 

The Auld Grump

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4 minutes ago, etherial said:

I'm curious the percentage of people who bought N of each vs. the people who bought say 2 clear and 5 opaque.

I haven't done those analyses. I've focused on high level analysis - X units sold to Y people, for each item, adjust for category bias and extrapolate.

 

As a general rule most weapon sets had a 1:1.1 or 1:1.2 ratio, so there's no high level indications that backers tended towards 2a:5b, ignoring statistical outliers. Because of this, there was no need to delve into the more granular numbers, such analysis would be warranted only if backers:unit ratios were outside of standard statistical params. 

 

And, although not mentioned above, another limiting factor that's difficult to control for is that with the Opaques, a backer could choose ONLY Arsenal, Grave, Virtue, or Vice, whereas with any of the 5 distinct Clear/tint variants, they were given all 4. It is therefore not precisely apples:apples. This complicates the analysis, but again, after attempts to control for that data, my previous statements apply. Would the values for Clear have been higher had there been 4 clear SKUs as there were 4 Opaque SKUs? Certainly the comparisons would have been more apples:apples with 24 SKUs than with the 9 we did.

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Of the three options, #3 is the obvious one for me. Making all the Bones catalogue in clear option just sounds like a headache in waiting.

 

As it is, the clears feel like a special limited collector edition of the minis, even though it's just using one inexpensive plastic instead of another inexpensive plastic. Clear Kyphrixis was beautiful! But not every mini would look better because it's clear. Some monsters may benefit from it (giants come to mind), but others (clear kobolds and rats, Anhurian soldiers?) not so much.

 

As for photographing clears. Would having a side-by-side picture of the clear and "opaque" original make sense?

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57 minutes ago, Dr_Automaton said:

OT: Man, do I love a good Bryan-nomics post! :wub:

And I love talking about these things but rarely get a chance to.

 

My data project now is a comparison of Bones 1 & 2 PM quintiles* compared to real sales quintile data as an assessment of the quality of measured Bones 3 PM quintiles for predictive effects. 

 

The trickiest part seems to be subsetting, where a given subset unit, as one example, "BBEG" might consist of 4 models. In real sales, the 4 models have wildly different sales quintiles, making predictions of individual skus based off the performance of the set too far outside of my comfortable margin of error. Although, aggregate sku sales across sets is related to the performance of the set, so the data does show predictive merit, but it lacks granularity**.

 

*quintiles = top 20% of sales demand, second 20%, third 20%, fourth 20% and bottom 20%. it is an assumed given that subsets within Core Set (Core Set Extras) will fall into the bottom two quintiles, but knowing that fact means we can adjust for it. Cores, Expansions, and high-profile "options" will fall into the top quintile. Which Options fall into the lower quintiles, and which Extras fall into the higher range of the lower quintiles helps us predict real sales demand. Extras which fall into an upper quintile - like Kickstarter Sophie, suggests significantly higher demand in the future, and Options which fall into a lower quintile suggest reduced demand, and as such, a relaxed re-order schedule.

 

** It's no surprise i have a fan club with swoon-inducing phrases like " the data does show predictive merit, but it lacks granularity", is it? 

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My internal monologue with the transparent pieces:  *picks up mini*  "Oh, a clear Bones piece.  That's kinda different."  *hoses miniature down with primer and starts painting it*

 

If Reaper wants to continue experimenting with transparent/translucent/clear/etc. plastic I don't mind.  But so far, I really haven't gotten any more mileage out of any of these pieces than I have from the standard Bones.  To me it's a neat gimmick, but a gimmick nonetheless.

 

The Egg

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It's interesting to try to pull out sales trends in art. Elissa Mitchell (fantasy artist and illustrator) often sends many pieces to my wife's art shows and after conversations I understand that she does the same sorts of data analysis: Does this piece sell better with a red matt, a blue matt, or is it better to use a mix in hopes of finding the customer for whom gray is the perfect color? What mix of piece sizes works best at an art show? What subjects sell best, and how does that correlate with sizes and matt colors? Etc.

 

There's so much interference between the appeal of the general subject, the appeal of a particular treatment of the subject, prices, sizes, general art styles, whatever that getting meaningful trends that aren't just artifacts of a data dredge is really difficult. Go too fine and random walk eats the trends and you see things that don't exist. Go too coarse and all you find out is something like, "Our customers like to buy fighters with bows."

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9 hours ago, Reaperbryan said:

And, although not mentioned above, another limiting factor that's difficult to control for is that with the Opaques, a backer could choose ONLY Arsenal, Grave, Virtue, or Vice, whereas with any of the 5 distinct Clear/tint variants, they were given all 4. It is therefore not precisely apples:apples. This complicates the analysis, but again, after attempts to control for that data, my previous statements apply. Would the values for Clear have been higher had there been 4 clear SKUs as there were 4 Opaque SKUs? Certainly the comparisons would have been more apples:apples with 24 SKUs than with the 9 we did.

 

The answer is "yes", I would have bought extra clear weapons if I could get just the Arsenal without the Grave, Virtue & Vice bundled in.  

 

If others mentioning "spell effects" are having the same thoughts that I am, it refers to the glowing flames and whatnot that mages are frequently depicted with in their hands.  You already have quite a few translucent spell terrain markers, the tentacles and walls of fire & ice being the most obvious examples.  

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13 hours ago, TheAuldGrump said:

There is considerable difference in discerning detail between a clear miniature and an opaque one.

 

Also significant is that my players seem to feel that the grey plastic used for Chronoscope miniatures is a whole lot better at showing detail - to the point where some were pretty sure that the grey plastic really is more detailed.

 

Put me down as 3 - with a couple of additions.... I would like to see a roughly useful invisible figure for each general class, in both genders. It does not need to be a specific female rogue sneaking around invisible, but it would be nice to have a generic invisible female rogue. Maybe in general body shapes too - a human can pass as an elf, but would have a hard time passing as a dwarf, whow would, in turn, have difficulty disguising herself as an invisible halfling....

 

Also, as mentioned, the grey does a very nice job of making detail more apparent.

 

The Auld Grump

I often still look for painted version to see what they look like regardless of the material.  I understand that it is slightly harder to see clears but I honestly don't think it makes that much of an impact in comparison.

I will say in response to Byran's inquiry.  3 is likely the best option but I would suggest a 4th. 

Heros vs Monsters.  Most of the minis people want clear are for their hero's to be invisible or to do spell effects that great.  Doesn't seem necessary to make every monster clear.  So focus on Hero/villain types as clears and Monsters as just regular.  Assuming that sales support this venture. Speaking as a DM.  I rarely use markers for invisible enemies.  But knowing that heros are invisible and where they are on the grid is actually important for me.  This is of course as long as it doesn't drive up costs to produce or anything like that. 

I am also extremely in favor of clear spell effect to mod into bones minis.  That is an awesome idea.  And I think it would keep you competitive with what Wizkids is doing with their unpainted line.  Because they are already doing this.   
 

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On 6/23/2017 at 7:33 PM, LittleBluberry said:

 

The answer is "yes", I would have bought extra clear weapons if I could get just the Arsenal without the Grave, Virtue & Vice bundled in.  

 

If others mentioning "spell effects" are having the same thoughts that I am, it refers to the glowing flames and whatnot that mages are frequently depicted with in their hands.  You already have quite a few translucent spell terrain markers, the tentacles and walls of fire & ice being the most obvious examples.  

Yes is assumed a given. Were subsets presented differently in EVERY case we would have seen different numbers.

 

the more accurate question is "what deviations form the current numbers do we expect?" or "Extrapolating form the popularity of Arsenal as a stand-alone, what predictions can we make about the popularity of clear arsenal?"

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I'm in the 3 camp.. although I'd like to see some bigger models have some transparent pieces.. like fire wings for Talin's fire demon sketch in  the sketch book.. clear spell effects could be cool, but I could see where the cost of a mold would have to be justified by the sales of the mini it was attached to ir where the same effect could be used for multiple bones minis like bones versions of 

 

02372: Dieter Von Regmon

03034: Ava, Female Wizard

03606: Ellus Mann, Wizard

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On 6/23/2017 at 2:55 PM, Egg of Coot said:

My internal monologue with the transparent pieces:  *picks up mini*  "Oh, a clear Bones piece.  That's kinda different."  *hoses miniature down with primer and starts painting it*

 

If Reaper wants to continue experimenting with transparent/translucent/clear/etc. plastic I don't mind.  But so far, I really haven't gotten any more mileage out of any of these pieces than I have from the standard Bones.  To me it's a neat gimmick, but a gimmick nonetheless.

 

The Egg

On the other hand - in my case the clear minis - unprimed and unpainted - were the first models used out of the Bones III box.

 

Used to remind the folks in my kids game that their characters were currently invisible/disguised - then replaced with their regular mini when they took an action that dispelled their invisibilty. (Mostly firing off fireballs.)

 

Which is why I would not need each and every model in transparent Bonesium - it was only for as long as that effect lasted.

 

The witch that had used Disguise Self to fake being a goblin was surprised when the giant proved just as willing to squash goblins as humans, elves, and dwarfs.....

 

The Auld Grump

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