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Confrontation: Classic


ced1106
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well, try to break this down a bit. ballpark figures.

 

They totalled just over 400.000 euros in pledges. take away 10% for KS fees and such and you get a number around 360 000 euros. add to this an unkown amount in late pledges and pledge upgrades, Was there a pledge manager at all?

 

we are looking at about 250+ unique miniatures that all need to be cast somewhere between 1200-2000 copies of.  say 1500 casts of each mini to make the numbers simple. Any way you look at it, 250 minis times 1500 copies gets 375.000 minis needing casting. Is there any chance in the world that each mini on average will cost significantly less than 1 euro to cast? In Europe? Presumably at EU-approved salaries? I really hope for their own sake that De Tinnen Ross require payment in advance of doing any work here.

 

They are making one mould per mini it seems. Many of these minis are in several parts, increasing the number of moulds needed. The examples in the pictures have 16 one piece minis, the other has 7 multipart minis per mould. How many times can a mould be run before needing replacement? I have no idea. More than resin, but significantly less than plastic. Anyway, if the moulds cost like 50 euro each to make, you still are looking at a bare minimum of 12500 just for one mould of each. Times this with how many moulds wear out casting 1500 minis.

 

So basically the wad is already blown before any talk of shipping costs. Which will be significant considering weight of a given parcel will approach 10 kilos.

 

Yes, there might be a large back stock of old Rackham castings that will mitigate the production costs, but that is purely speculation.

 

My ballpark numbers might also be off. But you get the idea here. so you might say I find this update slightly too good to be true.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Balgin Stondraeg said:

Who wants to bet they were going to try to use the old metal moulds for casting resin, found out they'd need to make new moulds, and decided to just switch back to metal because using the existing moulds would be cheaper than making new ones?

If that's the case, then backers could end up seeing figures cast on worn out molds...

 

10 minutes ago, Maledrakh said:

I really hope for their own sake that De Tinnen Ross require payment in advance of doing any work here.

Same here.  Hopefully someone has tipped them off? 

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They DO NOT have any of the Cadwallon recasts. 

The best they could have gotten is top make Cadwallon destroy them. Handing over pirated copies doesn't happen.

If they were metal recasts, you can be certain that the Cadwallon people melted them down and reused the metal. And besides, don't they mostly work Resin?    

And besides, they were recasts; made by using a production mini as a master when they created the mold. They will have imperfections that aren't on the 'official' minis.  

 

Sans Common Sense have also sold off the original masters...    

I don't know how much that netted them, but I doubt it was a significant amount. 

(Significant compared to the €400.000 budget at least)

 

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14 hours ago, Gadgetman! said:

Lead-free pewter is priced from £7 to £11 per lbs according to some very quick googling.  

10Kg (11lbs) would that be at least £77(say $100 to be nice)   

And that's the metal cost only. 

10kg converts to 22lbs, give or take a few metal shavings ^_^

 

I do wonder how they plan on actually affording such, because that's a LOT of metal, not to mention all those molds that will have to be paid for... 

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There are so many things that do not add up here. If I was a cynic I might be thinking that this entire "move to metal" is nothing more than a sham play to have documented that they "actually are working towards fulfilment" to avoid culpability in the courts when they invariable get sued after all the moneys go *poof* and are gone.

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2 hours ago, Maledrakh said:

There are so many things that do not add up here. If I was a cynic I might be thinking that this entire "move to metal" is nothing more than a sham play to have documented that they "actually are working towards fulfilment" to avoid culpability in the courts when they invariable get sued after all the moneys go *poof* and are gone.

 

That's an overly convoluted way of avoiding using the word lying. :rolleyes:

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well, that is really my point. Kickstarter is no longer as easy get cash for free and run away-scheme as it used to be. Several cases have already been to court and creators are viewed as culpable, but if they can show that they have made an effort, then they will probably get away with it. Which is what I for one think is going on here. 

 

basically, I belive this update and all that surrounds it is some sort of false flag operation to cover their donkeys in case of litigation being raised in future.

 

But one must not assign to malice that which can be explained by incompetence...so if the above scenario is not the case, then the entire thing showcases a degree of cluelessness that is simply astounding.

Edited by Maledrakh
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NEW NEWS!

Sans Common Sense have graciously reopened the pledge manager and WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OFFERING THE CELEBRATION BOX!

This is for all of those poor folks who didn't get it because they'd preferred metal.  Well, isn't that nice of them?
It will, of course, cost more than the Early Bird price that everyone on the Kickstarter got.  It will cost 500 Euros at first, then in a couple of months, it will bump up to $600.

In a move no one expected, it seems that they will be offering refunds to backers of the Celebration Box (since there are some folks who don't want the metal miniatures).  This is undoubtedly a net positive, since it will cost them more to produce a single box than it will to give out a refund.
 

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-


Ok. I want to do some math.  Here's the math that I think Sans Detour is doing:

I'm going to start with real figures that significantly underestimate the cost of this project.


To cast a human sized character will cost around $1-$1.50 each.  If somehow those 254 minis could average $1 each, then it only costs $254 to make a set.

A box of 250 metal minis is extremely heavy.  Shipping a box of that much pewter is going to cost about $60 on the low end (probably a LOT more since they're shipping world wide).

Look at that- they're able to make and deliver a single box for $314.  They got about $310 per set (convert $299 to dollars and subtract 10% for Kickstarter).   So with some serious blinders to reality, they're just barely pulling it in the red.  If we account that they charged a bit for shipping, they're just barely in the black.

This matches their claim that the Celebration Boxes cost to produce are barely lower than what they charged.


Of course, that doesn't account for the 60k that they'll need to spend on molds, it figures that the terrain, dice and books are free, and it assumes a very low estimate on what each mini will cost (have a look at this graphic and tell me if you think these minis will average $1 to produce).

14ad754beca143d87f4ea5a72ec6a589_origina
 

 

I didn't do a count, but I feel like a LOT of those minis are significantly bulkier than a normal human sized mini.  I mean, there are a lot of big guys in there
- bulky dwarves, goblins and orcs,
- really big Wolfen, Demons, Ogres, Ophidians and Minotaurs, and
- huge trolls, and a griffon
- quite a bit of cavalry- including that massive Orc.

If they are making new molds (and they say that they are) then any of these that are more than one piece will add to that cost (there are a lot that are one piece minis, but a lot of them are four or more pieces).

Seriously, I'm not sure that they'll be able to make a profit at the $600 price tag.

Edited by odinsgrandson
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7 hours ago, Maledrakh said:

But one must not assign to malice that which can be explained by incompetence...so if the above scenario is not the case, then the entire thing showcases a degree of cluelessness that is simply astounding.

it could very well be a combination of both.  One bad actor surrounded by incompetence. I've noticed that bad actors often surround themselves with incompetence. 
 

46 minutes ago, odinsgrandson said:

In a move no one expected, it seems that they will be offering refunds to backers of the Celebration Box (since there are some folks who don't want the metal miniatures).

Yeah - I wonder how successful those people requesting refunds will be, based on past performance. 

I was surprised by this mornings update - I didn't think that they'd blatantly ask for more cash this soon. 

4 minutes ago, odinsgrandson said:

Of course, that doesn't account for the 60k that they'll need to spend on molds, it figures that the terrain, dice and books are free,

What do you want to bet that they'll drop the dice and terrain, and send the books as PDFs, and claim "But we gave you metal, like you wanted?" 

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