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Confrontation: Classic


ced1106
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Well... ok.

I suspect that Miniatures Market doesn't have to pay them until Sans Detour delivers.  That's a really good deal for Miniatures Market.


If those sales are net positive (at $560 each for $254 pewter minis) then it is a good deal for Sans Detour as well, and will definitely help this project actually deliver.

I'm still worried that the Celebration Boxes are net negative at $500 each (there are a lot of big minis, and they weren't optimized for the increased price of tin).

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If MM is actually paying for 400 boxes up front that will have given them a bunch of cash

 

(but I bet it's closer to $80,000 than $200, 000 based on the discount distribution demands, and will be paid in chunks or on delivery since MM is well used to buying stock from failing/failed businesses and will be aware of the risk of handing over cash before the goods arrive)

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27 minutes ago, Orlando_the_Technicoloured said:

but I bet it's closer to $80,000 than $200, 000 based on the discount distribution demands,

I would tend to agree that it's at a discount, but do you really think it would be that significant?

The distribution discount is typically calculated from the MSRP, which SD is pegging at $1350. 

If MM is getting a standard distribution discount based off the already discounted 499 Euro price, then that's yet another sign that SD really has no idea what it's doing. 

 

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1 hour ago, kristof65 said:

I would tend to agree that it's at a discount, but do you really think it would be that significant?

The distribution discount is typically calculated from the MSRP, which SD is pegging at $1350. 

If MM is getting a standard distribution discount based off the already discounted 499 Euro price, then that's yet another sign that SD really has no idea what it's doing. 

 



I agree.  From what SD is telling us, I think that $500 is the price before distribution and retail take their cuts.

MM recognizes that the set is limited, and are probably in a position to get their copies first (which will increase their potential sales value).  Especially if they have a rather standard retail arrangement of payment on delivery (since SD will almost certainly need that influx of cash if they want to continue delivering to backers.


Actually, I feel like I'm starting to see an escape plan for SD.  I mean, I don't think they can deliver everything at the prices they have, but they can get started and deliver some of the metal boxes.

And they've already got a plan in place to leave orders open, but raise the price at arbitrary points.  Maybe they are hoping that new orders will surge when the first set of backers start receiving their pledges, and so forth.

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5 hours ago, odinsgrandson said:

Actually, I feel like I'm starting to see an escape plan for SD.

I concur...but...
 

5 hours ago, odinsgrandson said:

MM recognizes that the set is limited, and are probably in a position to get their copies first

If MM does get theirs first, SD is going to see a lot of anger. 

My guess is that MM plans to split up most of the sets.

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9 hours ago, odinsgrandson said:


And they've already got a plan in place to leave orders open, but raise the price at arbitrary points.  Maybe they are hoping that new orders will surge when the first set of backers start receiving their pledges, and so forth.

 

That is a plan, yes..  

Usually known as a Ponzi scheme...

 

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On 6/20/2019 at 2:37 AM, Gadgetman! said:

 

That is a plan, yes..  

Usually known as a Ponzi scheme...

 

 

 

Yeah.  

With Kickstarter, I sometimes feel like it is easy for a company to start an unintentional Ponzi scheme (they run out of money to fulfill one KS, so they start a second one which pays for the first, and a third one that pays for the second, etc).

In general, I feel like most Kickstarters that get any real attention are legitimately trying, and are victims of their own miscalculations and enthusiasm.  You know, "Don't attribute to malice what could be explained by incompetence."

 


With this one- I'm not sure that you can do the math honestly and screw up that much- especially when you've got dozens of backers telling you.  That, and the way that Chaosium, Petersen Games and Asmodee all seem to have lost a lot of money to these guys, it just doesn't seem entirely honest.


On the other hand, allowing backers to drop their pledges isn't a Ponzi move.  So I'm not sure.

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On 6/19/2019 at 5:32 PM, odinsgrandson said:

Especially if they have a rather standard retail arrangement of payment on delivery (since SD will almost certainly need that influx of cash if they want to continue delivering to backers.

 

Standard retailer discount is (or was when I was in the industry) 40/10/10, which is a 40% discount base (so 60% of MSRP), with an additional 10% for payment within 90 days (we're now at 54% of MSRP, because the additional 10% is taken off the 60% notional price), and a further 10% for payment within 30 days (for a final discounted price of 48.6% of MSRP). For reference, standard distributor terms are/were 50/10/10.

 

In fact, it's pretty common to go directly to a 50% discount for retail and 60% for distribution, since it's easier for everyone to understand and calculate. Plus stores and distributors tend to take the prompt payment discounts without regard to when they actually pay. And stop buying from manufacturers who complain about their not paying contracted amounts.

 

What MM might be paying and when the check might be cut is anybody's guess.

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So, I was at Reapercon this past week, and after talking to some industry insiders about the Confrontation case, I discovered something.


CMON still has all of the masters Rackham used for Confrontation.  Back when CMON was planning on relaunching Confrontation (I think they called it Confrontation Phoenix) they acquired all of the masters.  CMON approached Sans Detour about purchasing the masters from them.  After that, two things kind of happened:

- Sans Detour told CMON that they could make due with the production models (probably to try and get CMON to drop the price)
- CMON saw that the whole project was turning into a cluster**** and decided that it would be better to just not be involved.

So- that tells us that Sans Detour is using production models to create their miniatures, with a generation less fidelity to the originals.  Essentially, the quality of a recast.

(at least they are if they're creating them at all)

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So when Sans Detour were blatantly trying to sell master sculpts (not master casts but the originals) of virtually every single sculpt that did not feature in their campaign on their sister company's website to raise extra money while the campaign was running you're suggesting CMON had the actual masters at the same time? Interesting........

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On 9/5/2019 at 8:11 AM, Balgin Stondraeg said:

I know I should have written this earlier but I can't shake the feeling that the "production models" they were going to sue to make some cheap mould all came from that Eastern European recaster that they tried to shut down as soon as they began their campaign. That would be the greatest irony.

 

 

If the production models did come from Cadwallon, then that would be one extra generation removed from the masters (because Cadwallon was using production models as their masters).  That's all speculation, of course, but since SD wasn't negotiating to get the masters from the people who got them from Rackham they probably just picked up the old models through Ebay and other internet sites.  In that case, a lot of their 'masters' probably did come from recasters.

I really don't understand why they'd be selling the real masters like that in any case.  It just doesn't make any sense to me.

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