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Froggy the Great

Randomness XIV: THE FLOOR IS LAVA!

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Poor Sam. Our barista called out, so the manager is here trying to figure out the machine. It's a finicky machine. It doesn't look like it's going well.

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1 hour ago, Doug Sundseth said:

 

I have a good friend that works for NOAA/UCAR. He has told me that the meteorologists there will readily admit that any forecast beyond 3 days is mostly a guess, based on a combination of average weather and current trends.

 

But there's a demand for a 10 day forecast, so there's a 10-day forecast.

 

I live in the Netherlands and I have also been told that this 3 day forecast is about the best they can predict.

Everything beyond that is always a what if situation based on several factors, wind direction being one of them.

We have a site that claims to give a 14 day forecast.:upside:

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I’ve always wondered if a neural network forecast program would work well, basing it mostly on historical data of upstream weather stations and current conditions. No time to program that tho. Might work wonders for the east coast, but not sure the west would get much benefit. 

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7 hours ago, redambrosia said:

It's been pretty foggy around here the last few days. And the last two nights and been very foggy. 

 

Now, a normal person would listen to the weather people and take what they said for granted. But, I'm not normal :rolleyes: :lol:

 

I think a group of foolish teens somewhere nearby has summoned Something. Probably teens in the Well To Do area. But now that Something is terrorizing them and the fog won't go away until all but one of them is dead.

 

You live in the northwest. I thought you guys were supposed to have like a week of sunny, not foggy weather a year?

 

2 hours ago, Pegazus said:

 

/rant mode on

 

Yeah, I spent two years monitoring the ten day forecast in Excel, to see how accurate they were. For the next day forecast, the average was ±2F°, but the ten day was ±8F°. On average. The biggest I saw was 32°F off. Wonder if the could save their reputation by giving out ranges like that? Not this, "oh it'll be 86 tomorrow" bs, but "we will be somewhere from 82 to 90". That's more accurate, and you know the models they watch spit out something like that.

 

/rant against inaccuracy off

 

I've often said I could look out the window and give you a better forecast for here than the weatherman. My farm is located on top of high land and I can see 60-70 km in any direction and can judge the winds and clouds. Most of my life was spent outdoors. The wife got used to that while we lived out there. Now she asks me what it's going to be like and I can't tell. Our back yard is a big hill that blocks the view to the west (all our weather generally comes from the west) and the winds down in the valley aren't as reliable for a forecast. I usually tell her I'm too lazy to walk the 400 feet of near vertical to go check the weather. It's either that or go drive a few miles to get on top of the plateau where that goes from here to the farm.

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12 minutes ago, Pegazus said:

I’ve always wondered if a neural network forecast program would work well, basing it mostly on historical data of upstream weather stations and current conditions. No time to program that tho. Might work wonders for the east coast, but not sure the west would get much benefit. 

 

There are lots of people with lots of money to make (or other big advantages) out of accurate weather forecasts -- DoD, farmers, Vegas (sports books), NASA (:poke:), .... As might be expected when there's money to be made, many things have been, and are being, tried, including neural networks. See https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1031&context=etd for instance. There's definitely more data to work with downwind, and the east coast of the US is somewhat less subject to chaos than the mountain west (where a few degrees of wind direction variation can cause huge changes to weather) anyway, but there are quite a few moored weather stations at sea as well, since, again, there's money in this:https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/ocs/ .

 

From the evidence available to me, this is just a hard problem.

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16 hours ago, PaganMegan said:

We voted.

 

In Person Absentee Ballots.

 

The gubernatorial race is a close one. Last poll, the two main candidates were tied - 39/39.

 

The Auld Grump

18 minutes ago, Doug Sundseth said:

 

There are lots of people with lots of money to make (or other big advantages) out of accurate weather forecasts -- DoD, farmers, Vegas (sports books), NASA (:poke:), .... As might be expected when there's money to be made, many things have been, and are being, tried, including neural networks. See https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1031&context=etd for instance. There's definitely more data to work with downwind, and the east coast of the US is somewhat less subject to chaos than the mountain west (where a few degrees of wind direction variation can cause huge changes to weather) anyway, but there are quite a few moored weather stations at sea as well, since, again, there's money in this:https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/ocs/ .

 

From the evidence available to me, this is just a hard problem.

Though as far as I know, no one has yet tried farms of trained butterflies, practiced in synchronized wing flapping. And asynchronous wing flapping is as yet unexplored.

 

The Auld Grump

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4 minutes ago, TheAuldGrump said:

Though as far as I know, no one has yet tried farms of trained butterflies, practiced in synchronized wing flapping. And asynchronous wing flapping is as yet unexplored.

 

The Auld Grump

 

The problem is training them to tight synchrony. (They don't react well to drill-sergeant-like leaders. Too individualistic.) And they seem to like jazz more than Sousa, so that's out, too.

 

As I say, a hard problem.

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drags Windows 10 out back and shoots it, lights it on fire, then buries it in a shallow grave

 

What’s that?  No I’m having a lovely morning. And yourself?

56 minutes ago, Pegazus said:

I’ve always wondered if a neural network forecast program would work well, basing it mostly on historical data of upstream weather stations and current conditions. No time to program that tho. Might work wonders for the east coast, but not sure the west would get much benefit. 

You should totally code it and call it Skynet. 

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24 minutes ago, Doug Sundseth said:

 

The problem is training them to tight synchrony. (They don't react well to drill-sergeant-like leaders. Too individualistic.) And they seem to like jazz more than Sousa, so that's out, too.

 

As I say, a hard problem.

No, figuring out the right music is a bard problem. ::P:

*EDIT* If it were hard, you couldn't get the bard to do it.

 

The Auld Grump - I do not recommend Flight of the Bumblebee....

Edited by TheAuldGrump
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8 hours ago, redambrosia said:

It's been pretty foggy around here the last few days. And the last two nights and been very foggy. 

 

Now, a normal person would listen to the weather people and take what they said for granted. But, I'm not normal :rolleyes: :lol:

 

I think a group of foolish teens somewhere nearby has summoned Something. Probably teens in the Well To Do area. But now that Something is terrorizing them and the fog won't go away until all but one of them is dead.

 

I'm much more inclined to believe it's Dementors.  The fog was noticeably worse over the high school, so they're likely attracted to the high levels of angst.

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3 hours ago, redambrosia said:

Poor Sam. Our barista called out, so the manager is here trying to figure out the machine. It's a finicky machine. It doesn't look like it's going well.

The machine Spirit has apparently bonded with the barista and is not happy about being touched anyone else. Call the barista and have them speak soothing reassuring words to the machine over the phone, and see if that helps. 

 

This is the second time since Friday I've woken up because I got shot in a dream. (This time for mouthing off to Randall Flagg after he expressed his discontent over a cartoon I'd drawn of Nadine and others of his followers.) I'm hoping this isn't some kind of precognitive thing. 

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… I begin to think you guys are a cure for headaches.

Mine, anyway. Although I know better than to try and do anything before the painkiller kicks in... my headaches like to ambush me. :/

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Quote

This is the second time since Friday I've woken up because I got shot in a dream. (This time for mouthing off to Randall Flagg after he expressed his discontent over a cartoon I'd drawn of Nadine and others of his followers.) I'm hoping this isn't some kind of precognitive thing...

Two Alternate LotDPits from two different Alternate Realities have become casualties. 

 

In this reality draw cartoons of Chocolate Labrador Puppies. Chocolate Labs rarely offend anyone. 

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQM38EVmGJ_zJJ4IllgqWT

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